What is supply-chain disruption — and how do you price it?

What causes supply-chain disruption?

Disruption rarely has a single cause, and GADUIN's markets are organised around where it surfaces first: vehicles in motion. In the air, weather, congestion, crew and aircraft rotations, and air-traffic restrictions push flights past their scheduled arrival or cancel them outright — and because much of the world's high-value, time-critical air cargo flies in the belly of passenger jets, those delays feed straight into freight schedules. On the railways, signalling faults, infrastructure works, and knock-on delays cascade into missed connections across Great Britain's National Rail network. At sea, congestion and queuing at the world's busiest maritime chokepoints — the Suez and Panama canals, the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb — slow the vessels that carry most intercontinental trade, and the delay flows down the chain into stockouts and higher freight costs. Each of these is an observable, public event, which is precisely what makes it tradable.

Every chokepoint, on its own page

Each of the world's busiest maritime passages has its own page: whether it is transitable and on whose say-so, the vessel mix moving through it, tankers holding position with transponders switched off, the container lines that have suspended, and a dated chronology of the incidents behind it.

• Suez Canal
• Panama Canal
• Bosporus Strait
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait
• Malacca Strait
• Strait of Hormuz
• Cape of Good Hope
• Gibraltar Strait
• Dover Strait
• Oresund Strait
• Taiwan Strait
• Korea Strait
• Tsugaru Strait
• Luzon Strait
• Lombok Strait
• Ombai Strait
• Bohai Strait
• Torres Strait
• Sunda Strait
• Makassar Strait
• Magellan Strait
• Yucatan Channel
• Windward Passage
• Mona Passage
• Balabac Strait
• Bering Strait
• Mindoro Strait
• Kerch Strait

How do you price supply-chain disruption?

You price it the way any market prices a risk: by letting people trade it. Each GADUIN market is a yes/no event contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price a contract trades at — somewhere between the two — reads directly as the market-implied probability of that outcome. A flight's on-time contract at $0.95 is the crowd saying that arrival is about 95% likely; as weather turns or a chokepoint clogs, new information arrives, participants trade, and the price moves with it. Buy the side you believe is under-priced, or sell any time before the market closes. Because the contract is worth exactly $1 or $0 at the end, the running price is a continuously updated, money-backed estimate of how disrupted a specific journey will be — a number you can act on, not a static forecast.

Is it a market, a tracker, or a forecast?

GADUIN is a trading venue — not a flight tracker, a shipping dashboard, a forecasting service, or an insurer. Trackers tell you where something is right now; a prediction market tells you what the crowd thinks will happen next, and lets you take the other side. Because contracts pay out on published measurements, the price of a market reads as a continuously updated, money-backed probability of disruption.

What can you trade?

Transport is the wedge into supply-chain risk. Each vertical is a live market on an observable outcome, settled automatically from official data.

How do the markets settle?

Every market's terms — the delay threshold and the scheduled time that threshold is measured against — are fixed the moment it opens, before the first trade, and they cannot change afterwards. Once the event has happened, the market resolves automatically from official data — no house, no adjuster, no discretion. If the data is ever ambiguous, a human reviewer settles it within 24 hours against those same terms. Read how settlement works and the data that settles our markets.

How is it different from insurance or a freight index?

A disruption market is not insurance and not a freight-rate index. Insurance pays out on a loss you have to prove, on terms an underwriter sets; an index reports an average price after the fact. A GADUIN market instead lets you take a direct position on a specific, named outcome — this flight, this service, this chokepoint — and it settles from an official measurement rather than a claim or a survey. Prices update continuously while the event is still in doubt, so the market is a live read on disruption rather than a backward-looking benchmark. And because settlement is deterministic and tied to terms fixed the moment the market opens, no adjuster's discretion sits between the event and the payout: the recorded data alone decides who is paid.

Who trades supply-chain disruption?

Retail traders take a view on the events they follow; logistics and hedging counterparties offset genuine disruption exposure — see GADUIN for institutions. The same markets are open to software: agents and trading bots read and trade over REST and the Model Context Protocol.