Put a price on supply-chain disruption

What causes supply-chain disruption?

Disruption rarely has a single cause, and GADUIN's markets are organised around where it surfaces first: vehicles in motion. In the air, weather, congestion, crew and aircraft rotations and air-traffic restrictions push flights past their scheduled arrival or cancel them outright. Most of the world's high-value, time-critical air cargo flies in the hold of passenger jets, so those delays feed straight into freight schedules. On the railways, signalling faults, infrastructure works and knock-on delays cascade into missed connections across the rail network. At sea, congestion and queuing at the busiest maritime chokepoints — the Suez and Panama canals, the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb — slow the vessels that carry most intercontinental trade, and that delay flows down the chain into stockouts and higher freight costs. Each of these is an observable, public event, which is precisely what makes it tradable.

How many ships actually crossed each passage against the level it normally runs at, what is being filed about it right now, and the contracts priced on next week's count. Every reading says when it was taken.

• Suez Canal
• Panama Canal
• Bosporus Strait
• Bab-el-Mandeb
• Strait of Malacca
• Strait of Hormuz
• Cape of Good Hope
• Strait of Gibraltar
• Strait of Dover
• Oresund Strait
• Taiwan Strait
• Korea Strait
• Tsugaru Strait
• Luzon Strait
• Lombok Strait
• Ombai Strait
• Bohai Strait
• Torres Strait
• Sunda Strait
• Makassar Strait
• Strait of Magellan
• Yucatan Channel
• Windward Passage
• Mona Passage
• Balabac Strait
• Bering Strait
• Mindoro Strait
• Kerch Strait

How do you price supply-chain disruption?

You price it the way any market prices a risk: by letting people trade it. Each GADUIN market is an event contract, and every outcome it carries pays $1 if it is the one that happens and $0 if it is not. So the price a contract trades at — somewhere between the two — reads as the chance the market gives that outcome. A flight's on-time contract at 95¢ is a 95% chance of arriving on time. As weather turns or a chokepoint clogs, new information arrives and the price moves as people trade. Buy the side you think is under-priced, or sell any time before the market closes. Because the contract is worth exactly $1 or $0 at the end, the running price is a live, money-backed read on how disrupted a specific journey will be — a number you can act on, not a static forecast.

Is it a market, a tracker or a forecast?

GADUIN is a market — not a flight tracker, a shipping dashboard, a forecasting service or an insurer. A tracker tells you where something is right now. A market tells you what a delay is worth, and lets you trade either side of it. Because contracts pay out on published measurements, the price of a market reads as a live, money-backed chance of disruption.

What can you trade?

Start where disruption shows up first — the vehicles. Flights, rail and shipping each carry live markets on an outcome anyone can check, settled automatically from official data.

• Flight disruption markets

  Trade whether a specific flight arrives on time, lands past a delay threshold, or is cancelled — settled on the flight's recorded arrival.

  Explore flight markets

• Rail disruption markets

  Trade delay and cancellation contracts on rail services, settled on the official arrival record.

  Explore rail markets

• Shipping and chokepoint markets

  Trade arrival and throughput contracts on the world's busiest maritime chokepoints, settled on official arrival and throughput records.

  Explore shipping markets

How do the markets settle?

Every market’s terms are fixed when it opens, before the first trade. Settlement compares those terms with the official record. Missing or conflicting observations can require review, with no universal 24-hour guarantee. Read how settlement works and how official records are used.

How is it different from insurance or a freight index?

A disruption market is not insurance and not a freight-rate index. Insurance pays out on a loss you have to prove, on terms an underwriter sets. An index reports an average price after the fact. A GADUIN market lets you take a direct position on a specific, named outcome — this flight, this service, this chokepoint — and it settles from an official measurement rather than a claim or a survey. Prices update continuously while the event is still in doubt, so the market is a live read on disruption rather than a backward-looking benchmark. And because settlement is deterministic and tied to terms fixed the moment the market opens, no adjuster's discretion sits between the event and the payout: the recorded data alone decides who is paid.

Who trades supply-chain disruption?

Retail traders take a view on the events they follow; logistics and hedging businesses offset genuine disruption exposure — see GADUIN for institutions. The same markets are open to software: agents and AI assistants can read them with a key you issue.