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How settlement works

Settlement determines which event contracts pay out. GADUIN applies the market’s fixed published rules when sufficient evidence establishes an outcome. Missing or conflicting records can delay resolution.

Before trading, read the event definition, reference schedule or measurement, and settlement rules. Those terms define what the market will resolve against. This guide explains how evidence is applied, what each contract pays at settlement, and how missing or conflicting records are handled. Resolution timing depends on the evidence and the market’s terms.

Published July 9, 2026 · last updated September 29, 2026

How does a market settle, step by step?

1. The market's terms are fixed
When a market opens, its terms are fixed: the exact service it refers to, the delay threshold that separates on time from delayed, and the scheduled time that threshold is measured against. For a flight that is the scheduled arrival and the number of minutes past it that count as a delay; for a train it is the timetabled arrival at the destination. Those terms are fixed before trading starts and cannot be changed afterwards, so the first trade and the last trade in a market are made against exactly the same rule.
2. The event happens
Each market states its trading close. While trading is open and your order can be filled, you may trade at the quoted price. Prices express market expectations, not confirmed event results. After trading closes, follow the market’s resolution state and published rules.
3. Apply the rules to the evidence
Once sufficient evidence establishes an outcome, settlement follows the terms fixed when the market opened. Each contract on the outcome that happens pays $1.00; every other contract pays $0. Missing, late or conflicting records can delay resolution. Check the market state and its terms for how unresolved cases are handled.

A worked example: settling one flight market

Hypothetical example: a flight market defines Delayed as arrival more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival in its terms, the rule every GADUIN flight market uses. You buy 10 Delayed contracts at 30¢ each, paying $3. If sufficient evidence establishes a 46-minute delay under those rules and the market resolves to Delayed, the 10 contracts pay $10 in total. If the market resolves to another outcome, those contracts pay $0 and the $3 you paid does not come back. Check the published trading close and resolution rules; this example promises no settlement time.

Does settlement work the same for flights, trains and ships?

Each market’s published rules define the measurement for its event. Flight and train markets may use arrival times or cancellation records; shipping markets may concern a voyage arrival or traffic over a specified period. Read the relevant date, reference time, threshold and evidence requirements. Settlement applies the fixed rules once sufficient evidence establishes an outcome.

Where does the settlement data come from?

Each market’s published rules define the event and evidence used for settlement. Measurements can include recorded arrivals, cancellations or traffic counts over a specified period. Check the market’s evidence requirements and treatment of missing or conflicting records. See the settlement data guide for the measurements used.

Can the settlement rule change after a market opens?

No. A market's terms — the service it refers to, the delay threshold and the scheduled time that threshold is measured against — are fixed the moment it opens and cannot be changed once trading has started. They are part of the question the market asks, so everyone trades against the same, known rule for the whole life of the market. Nobody — including GADUIN — can move the goalposts after money is on the table.

What if the data is missing or ambiguous?

If records are missing, late or conflicting, settlement pauses for review against the market’s fixed terms. Timing depends on the available evidence; there is no universal 24-hour guarantee. If an outcome cannot be established, the market is voided and positions are refunded under its terms.

Why do fixed settlement rules matter?

Published terms let readers compare a resolved outcome with the evidence and the question the market asked. An agent can also read those terms and outcomes, while accounting for unresolved or conflicting records. Clear rules make that comparison possible; they do not guarantee that evidence will arrive on time. For the mechanics, see how prediction markets work.

Settlement, in brief

How much does a contract pay at settlement?: Each contract on the outcome that happens pays exactly $1.00, and every other contract pays $0. Your return is the difference between that payout and the price you paid for the contract.
Are there any fees when a market settles?: No. GADUIN charges no trading or settlement fee, so each contract on the outcome that happens pays the full $1.00.
How quickly am I paid?: Timing depends on when sufficient evidence is available and resolution completes under the market’s rules. Missing or conflicting records can delay settlement. Check the market state and your transfers; there is no universal payout-time guarantee.
What happens when the data is unclear?: If records are missing, late or conflicting, settlement pauses for review against the market’s fixed terms. Timing depends on the available evidence; there is no universal 24-hour guarantee. If an outcome cannot be established, the market is voided and positions are refunded under its terms.

Start with the basics: What a prediction market is and how it works

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For the big picture, start at the supply-chain disruption category hub. For account, deposit and settlement specifics, the FAQ goes deeper.