Every movement is a market.
The prediction market for everything in motion. Every flight, train, and ship — priced in real time, settled by reality. Zero fees.
- Every flight, train, and ship. Live.
- Settled by public data.
- Real-time markets. Zero fees.
What is GADUIN?
GADUIN turns the world in motion into a market. Every flight, train, and ship is a live, tradable question — will it run on time, slip late, or never arrive at all? You trade yes/no contracts on the outcome: each pays $1 if it happens and $0 if it does not, and the price — set by market makers trading against each other — moves like a live, crowd-sourced probability. Every market locks to a public data source when it opens and settles automatically after the event — public ADS-B for flights, Great Britain's National Rail for trains, and AIS with IMF PortWatch for ships and chokepoints — so no house or referee ever decides the result. Trading is real-time and carries zero fees, and the same markets are open to people, apps, and AI agents over REST and the Model Context Protocol. It's a trading venue where you take a position on what happens next — a marketplace, not a forecasting service or analytics tool.
Reading the price. Prices are market-implied probabilities. A contract priced at 95% costs about $0.95 and pays $1 if it happens — so a 95% on-time price is the market saying that outcome is nearly certain.
How it works
Pick a market
Choose a live flight, train, or ship voyage from the grids above or the category pages.
Trade the outcome
Buy the outcome you expect — on time, delayed, or cancelled. Each contract pays $1 if it happens, $0 if it does not.
It auto-settles
When the vehicle arrives, the market resolves automatically from the public tracking feed fixed when it opened.
Every market settles automatically from a public data source fixed at activation. Zero fees. Not available to US persons.
New to event contracts? See what a supply-chain disruption market is and how public-data settlement works.