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Prediction markets on flight, train & ship delays

Every movement is a market.

The prediction market for everything in motion. Every flight, train, and ship — priced in real time, settled by reality. Zero fees.

  • Every flight, train, and ship. Live.
  • Settled by official data.
  • Real-time markets. Zero fees.

Trading event contracts carries risk: you can lose the full amount you stake.

What is GADUIN?

GADUIN turns the world in motion into a market. Every flight, train, and ship is a live, tradable question — will it run on time, slip late, or never arrive at all? You trade yes/no contracts on the outcome: each pays $1 if it happens and $0 if it does not, and the price — set by market makers trading against each other — moves like a live, crowd-sourced probability. Every market's terms are fixed when it opens and it settles automatically from official data after the event — so no house or referee ever decides the result. Trading is real-time and carries zero fees, and the same markets are open to people, apps, and AI agents over REST and the Model Context Protocol. It's a trading venue where you take a position on what happens next — a marketplace, not a forecasting service or analytics tool.

Reading the price. Prices are market-implied probabilities. A contract priced at 95% costs about $0.95 and pays $1 if it happens — so a 95% on-time price is the market saying that outcome is nearly certain.

How it works

  1. Pick a market

    Choose a live flight, train, or ship voyage from the grids above or the category pages.

  2. Trade the outcome

    Buy the outcome you expect — on time, delayed, or cancelled. Each contract pays $1 if it happens, $0 if it does not.

  3. It auto-settles

    When the vehicle arrives, the market resolves automatically from official data, against the terms fixed when it opened.

Every market settles automatically from official data, against terms fixed when it opens. Zero fees. Not available to US persons.

Read the FAQTerms

New to event contracts? See what a supply-chain disruption market is and how public-data settlement works.