Learn
Learn
Read these before your first trade. Short guides on what a price means, what a share pays and how the official record settles every market — a few minutes each.
Start with the basics: every market asks one question, every share of the outcome that happens pays $1.00, and the price tells you the chance the market gives that outcome. The guides below cover pricing, payouts, settlement and how GADUIN compares with other ways to trade an outcome. Any word you don't recognise is in the glossary.
Guides
What is a prediction market?
How a price reads as a chance, what a share pays when its outcome happens, and a worked flight example from first trade to settlement.
How prices move
The LMSR pricing formula behind every price: the cost function, how deep each market is, and what one trade does to the price.
How flight delay markets work
Three outcomes, the 15-minute rule, cancellations, diversions and the $100 payout cap, in one guide.
Payout calculator
Type a price and an amount to see the implied chance, the payout multiplier and what you collect if you call it.
How settlement works
The three-step model behind every market: fix the market's terms when it opens, wait for the event, then settle automatically from official data.
Prediction market vs sportsbook
Who sets the price, how each settles, what it costs and whether you can exit early: six structural differences.
How GADUIN compares with other prediction markets
Markets, fees, funding and access side by side, checked against each operator's own published pages.
The data that settles our markets
What flight, rail and shipping markets actually measure — the recorded arrival, the official cancellation, the throughput — and why automatic settlement leaves no room for discretion.
Glossary
Plain-language definitions of event contracts, settlement, maritime chokepoints, delay thresholds and the rest of the vocabulary you'll meet across the site.
Rules and safeguards
Keep learning
Start with the basics: What a prediction market is and how it works
Related guides
- How prices move: the LMSR pricing formula explained
- How a market settles from the official record
- How flight delay markets work
Terms used on this page
Keep exploring
For the big picture, start at the supply-chain disruption category hub. For account, deposit and settlement specifics, the FAQ goes deeper.