Learn
Learn
GADUIN is the prediction market for supply-chain disruption. These short guides explain what you are trading, how each market settles, and where the settlement data comes from — the essentials, in a few minutes each.
Every market on GADUIN is a yes/no event contract that pays out from official data. The three explainers below build up the whole picture: what an event contract is, how settlement works step by step, and what the data behind flight, rail, and shipping markets actually measures. The glossary defines the vocabulary you will meet across the site.
Guides
How settlement works
The three-step model behind every market: fix the market's terms when it opens, wait for the event, then settle automatically from official data.
What is an event contract?
Yes/no contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price reads directly as the market-implied probability of the outcome.
The data that settles our markets
What the data behind flight, rail, and shipping markets actually measures — the recorded arrival, the official cancellation, the throughput — and why automatic settlement leaves no room for discretion.
Glossary
Plain-language definitions of event contracts, settlement, maritime chokepoints, delay thresholds, and the rest of the vocabulary you will meet across the site.
Keep exploring
For the big picture, start at the supply-chain disruption category hub. For account, deposit, and settlement specifics, the FAQ goes deeper.