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How flight delay markets work
A flight delay market asks one question about one flight: will it arrive on time, arrive delayed, or be cancelled? Delayed means more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Each share of the outcome that happens pays $1.00, read from the destination airport’s own record.
This guide covers the rules every flight market runs on, how the delay is measured, what happens on a cancellation or a diversion, and a worked example.
Published September 29, 2026 · last updated September 29, 2026
The rules come first
Every flight market fixes its terms before the first trade: the flight, the date, the scheduled arrival and the 15-minute threshold. They cannot change afterwards, and nobody here decides the result. No account can be paid more than $100.00 on one outcome of one market, however many trades it is split across.
Three outcomes, exactly one happens
- On time: the flight arrives no more than 15 minutes after its scheduled arrival.
- Delayed: it arrives more than 15 minutes after its scheduled arrival.
- Cancelled: the flight does not operate.
The three prices add up to 100%, and each reads as the chance the market gives that outcome. A share of the outcome that happens pays $1.00; every other share pays $0.
How the delay is measured
The delay is the actual arrival minus the scheduled arrival fixed in the market’s terms, as the destination airport itself reports it. Airports differ on which moment they publish as the arrival, so GADUIN uses the time that airport reports. A timetable change after the market opens does not move the reference, and why the flight was late does not enter into it.
A cancellation is not a very long delay
Cancelled is an outcome of its own. Delayed shares pay nothing if the flight is cancelled, and Cancelled shares pay nothing on a late arrival, however late. If both matter to you they are separate positions, each at its own price, and at most one of them pays.
When a flight diverts
If a flight diverts but still reaches its scheduled destination, the market settles on that arrival, measured the usual way. If it ends its journey at another airport, the market settles Cancelled. When records are missing or conflict, settlement pauses for review against the same fixed terms, and a market whose outcome cannot be established is voided and refunded.
What moves the price
Only trades move the price. Each one is priced by GADUIN’s pricing formula, the LMSR, so a larger order moves the price further, and the ticket shows the average price and exact payout before you confirm. A trade only buys: a position is held until the market settles.
A worked example
Delayed trades at 24¢. You put $10.00 on it and receive 35.92 shares at an average of 27.8¢, because the price rises as you buy. If the flight arrives more than 15 minutes late, those shares pay $35.92. If it arrives within 15 minutes or is cancelled, they pay $0 and the $10.00 is gone.
Illustrative prices on a market at GADUIN’s standard flight depth. Every live market shows its own.
Limits and fees
A trade must be at least $1. The standard ceilings are $50 on a single trade and $500 across every market, and the trade panel shows your own. There is no trading or settlement fee; withdrawals carry a 5% commission.
A position is not travel insurance
A market position does not replace your rights as a passenger or a claim to your airline, and it pays only under the market’s published rules. It can settle at $0, so only put in what you are comfortable seeing go to zero. GADUIN is not available to US persons or to residents of restricted jurisdictions.
Flight delay markets, in brief
- What counts as delayed?
- Arriving more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival in the market’s terms. A flight exactly 15 minutes late counts as on time.
- Whose arrival time decides the market?
- The destination airport’s own reported arrival, compared with the scheduled arrival fixed when the market opened.
- What if my flight diverts?
- If it still reaches the destination, the market settles on that arrival. If it ends its journey at another airport, the market settles Cancelled.
- Can I close a position before the flight?
- No. A trade only buys, and the shares are held until the market settles.
- What is the most I can be paid on one flight?
- $100.00 on one outcome of one market, which is $100.00 shares, counting every trade you make on that outcome.
Find your flight, then trade it
Browse flight markets to see each outcome’s price, what it pays out and when trading closes.
Keep learning
Start with the basics: What a prediction market is and how it works
Related guides
- How a market settles from the official record
- Market integrity: the rules every market runs on
- How prices move: the LMSR pricing formula explained