Rules for every market

Each market’s query, data source and resolution rule are fixed at activation, shown on the market page, and can’t be changed once trading opens (Terms of Use, §6). For a delay market this includes the delay threshold and the scheduled arrival it’s measured against. Later timetable changes don’t move them.

We use the record the airport, station or port publishes and apply the market’s fixed terms.

Flights

We compare the arrival time the destination airport publishes with the scheduled arrival fixed when the market opened. A flight more than the delay threshold late settles Delayed. A flight that arrives exactly at the threshold settles On time. A flight recorded as landing at another airport didn’t reach the market’s destination and settles Cancelled.

Trains

We compare the arrival record the destination station publishes with the timetable. A train late by the delay threshold or more settles Delayed. An official cancellation settles Cancelled.

Ships

We compare the arrival record the destination port publishes with the arrival estimate locked when the market opened. A ship that arrives more than the delay threshold after it settles Delayed.

Each market shows its own delay threshold on its page.

Once the record confirms the outcome, settlement is automatic. Each share of the outcome that happened pays $1.00 to your balance. Other shares pay nothing.

A market stops taking trades at the earliest of:

• Its published close time.
• For flight and train delay markets, the scheduled arrival plus the delay threshold. After that, the outcome no longer depends on anything still to happen.
• A departure so late the trip can no longer arrive on time.
• A recorded arrival, or a published cancellation or diversion.

No result reported yet

Settlement waits and no money moves while we keep checking the official record and valid alternatives. For flights the wait has a limit. If the arrival is never recorded, every position is refunded in full automatically, usually a little over two days after the scheduled arrival. If the destination’s arrivals record stopped publishing after the flight was due, the refund comes once it has been down for two days. If the airport already published a landing and never withdrew it, the market settles on that landing instead.

Record unavailable or inconsistent

The market is paused for a person to review. Nothing settles or refunds automatically during the review. It ends in settlement on the confirmed outcome or a full refund of every position.

No outcome to settle

If the official record confirms the event has no outcome to settle on, or a flight landed but its arrival time was never published, the market is voided and every position is refunded in full.

Voided by our team

If our team voids a market, every position is refunded in full.

If a settled result is wrong, we fix it: the market is re-settled on the right outcome, or voided and refunded. A correction that moves money needs a second person’s approval. Everyone who held the market or whose balance changes gets an email.

Under the Terms of Use (§10), you agree not to:

1. engage in market manipulation, wash trading, self-matching, spoofing, layering, front-running, or any conduct intended to create a false or misleading appearance of trading activity or price;
2. open or operate more than one account for any individual identity, except where expressly authorised by us in writing.

If we reasonably suspect a breach, the Terms (§11) let us suspend, freeze or close the account. We can also refuse, hold, reverse or refund any deposit, trade, withdrawal or payout, and recover from payouts owed to you any amount we have paid or are liable to pay because of the breach.

Quoted from the Terms of Use. Terms of Use: acceptable use

If you think a market settled incorrectly, email [email protected] within seven calendar days of settlement with your evidence. We review it and reply within 15 business days (Terms of Use, §13.1). If the settlement was wrong, we correct the result and credit anyone who was owed more. Money already paid out is never taken back.

Any other dispute under the Terms goes to individual arbitration administered by the LCIA, seated in Panama City (§13.2 and §13.3).

• A fixed pricing formula prices every trade. We don’t set prices (Terms of Use, §6). Each market has a cap on what it can owe, and a trade that would push it past the cap is refused.
• Sign-up checks detect repeated account creation (Privacy Policy, §2.4).

• How settlement works
• Responsible trading
• Terms of Use: acceptable use