About
A market on what runs late
Pick a flight, a train or a ship, and trade whether it is on time, delayed, or cancelled. The price moves as the day does. The official record settles it.
GADUIN is a prediction market where people buy and sell event contracts — not a forecasting service and not an analytics tool.
Our mission
Disruption is one of the largest, least-priced risks in the economy. A delayed vessel, a cancelled train or a grounded aircraft ripples through supply chains, budgets and travel plans. GADUIN turns those questions into markets, so a live price stands where guesswork used to, and anyone exposed to disruption has a transparent way to price it, trade it or hedge it.
How it works
Each market is an event contract, and it carries two outcomes or three depending on what it asks — Yes and No on whether a count clears a line, or On time, Delayed and Cancelled on a single flight, train or ship. A contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price you pay — somewhere between the two — reads as the chance the market gives that outcome. Buy the side you think is under-priced, or sell any time before the market closes.
Every market settles automatically from official tracking data — the operational record of when a flight, train or vessel actually arrived. The market's terms — the delay threshold and the scheduled time it is measured against — are fixed when the market opens and cannot change afterwards, so you always know how a contract will be settled before you trade it. There are zero trading fees.
Why you can trust settlement
Settlement is the part of any real-money market that has to be beyond dispute. On GADUIN it is deterministic — the outcome is read from the official record and applied to terms fixed before the first trade, not decided by an operator or a referee with an interest in the result.
- Every market's terms are fixed when it opens and cannot change.
- Markets settle from the official record, not from an operator or a referee.
- Settlement is deterministic and runs without operator discretion.
- Unclear records pause settlement for review against the fixed terms; review time depends on the evidence.
The settlement methodology and the FAQ walk through how markets settle, and the Terms set out the rules in full.
Trading is risky — the full amount you put in is at risk. Nothing on GADUIN is investment advice.
Who it's for
GADUIN is open to retail traders who want to take a view on the events they follow, and to logistics and hedging businesses that carry genuine disruption exposure and want a transparent instrument to offset it — see GADUIN for institutions. Software can read the markets too: see agents and AI assistants.
Compliance and availability
GADUIN is operated by Gaduin Inc., a company incorporated under the laws of the Republic of Panama. It is not registered with, or licensed by, any securities or derivatives regulator. The service is not available to US persons or to residents of restricted jurisdictions. Please review the Terms for the full eligibility and availability rules before trading.