About
A prediction market for supply-chain disruption
GADUIN lets anyone trade event contracts on whether a specific flight, train, or ship will be on time, delayed, or cancelled. Prices move as the world does, and every market settles automatically from public tracking data.
Our mission
Disruption is one of the largest, least-priced risks in the economy — a delayed vessel, a cancelled train, a grounded aircraft ripples through supply chains, budgets, and travel plans. GADUIN turns those questions into a market, so a real-time, crowd-sourced probability replaces guesswork, and anyone exposed to disruption has a transparent way to price it, trade it, or hedge it.
How it works
Each market is a yes/no event contract. A contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not, so the price you pay — somewhere between the two — reads directly as the market-implied probability of the outcome. Buy the side you believe is under-priced; sell any time before the market closes.
Every market settles automatically from public tracking data: ADS-B for flights, National Rail for Great Britain trains, and AIS and port data for ships. The data source and the exact resolution rule are fixed when a market opens and shown on the market page, so you always know how a contract will be settled before you trade it. There are zero trading fees.
Why you can trust settlement
Settlement is the part of any real-money market that has to be beyond dispute. On GADUIN it is deterministic and publicly verifiable — the outcome is read from named public data sources, not decided by a house or a referee with a stake in the result.
- Every market names its data source and resolution rule when it opens.
- Markets resolve from data, not from a house or a referee.
- Settlement is deterministic and publicly verifiable.
- If the data is ambiguous, a human reviewer resolves within 24 hours.
The FAQ walks through settlement in detail, and the Terms set out the rules in full.
Who it's for
GADUIN is open to retail traders who want to take a view on real-world events, and to logistics and hedging counterparties who carry genuine disruption exposure and want a transparent instrument to offset it — see GADUIN for institutions. The platform is also open to automated agents and trading bots over a programmatic interface.
Compliance & availability
GADUIN is operated from Panama. It is not registered with, or licensed by, any securities or derivatives regulator. The service is not available to US persons or to residents of restricted jurisdictions. Please review the Terms for the full eligibility and availability rules before trading.