Skip to content

LiveFlights Trains Ships Learn

Rail disruption markets

Delay and cancellation markets on Great Britain's National Rail network.

Next 48 hourslater departures open as they approach

St Erth to St Ives (Cornwall)

$814 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:52 AM GMT+1

Southport to Hillside

$801 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:40 AM GMT+1

Southport to Hillside

$750 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:55 AM GMT+1

Clitheroe to Bolton

$730 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:22 AM GMT+1

Liverpool Central to Hillside

$722 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:00 AM GMT+1

Liverpool Central to Hillside

$684 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:30 AM GMT+1

Pontypridd to Cardiff Bay

$663 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:54 AM GMT+1

Cardiff Bay to Cardiff Queen Street

$649 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:26 AM GMT+1

London Kings Cross to Kings Lynn

$640 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:24 AM GMT+1

London Liverpool Street to Chingford

$640 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:16 AM GMT+1

Cardiff Central to Cheltenham Spa

$639 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:10 AM GMT+1

Horsham to London Victoria

$635 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:15 AM GMT+1

Sheffield to Leeds

$631 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:52 AM GMT+1

Kings Norton to Birmingham New Street

$630 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:50 AM GMT+1

Looe to Liskeard

$629 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:01 AM GMT+1

Birmingham New Street to Shrewsbury

$628 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:26 AM GMT+1

Liskeard to Looe

$627 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:36 AM GMT+1

Cardiff Queen Street to Cardiff Bay

$627 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:32 AM GMT+1

West Kirby to West Kirby

$622 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:21 AM GMT+1

Falmouth Docks to Truro

$615 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:15 AM GMT+1

Leeds to Sheffield

$611 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:45 AM GMT+1

Birmingham New Street to Kings Norton

$610 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:24 AM GMT+1

Cheshunt to London Liverpool Street

$605 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:59 AM GMT+1

Enfield Town to London Liverpool Street

$605 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:20 AM GMT+1

London Liverpool Street to Chingford

$600 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:46 AM GMT+1

Chingford to London Liverpool Street

$600 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:53 AM GMT+1

Enfield Town to London Liverpool Street

$600 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:50 AM GMT+1

London Liverpool Street to Chingford

$600 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:01 AM GMT+1

London Liverpool Street to Enfield Town

$600 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:58 AM GMT+1

Chingford to London Liverpool Street

$600 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:08 AM GMT+1

London Liverpool Street to Chingford

$600 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:16 AM GMT+1

Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston

$600 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 7:14 AM GMT+1

Chingford to London Liverpool Street

$600 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:23 AM GMT+1

London Liverpool Street to Chingford

$600 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:31 AM GMT+1

Chingford to London Liverpool Street

$600 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:38 AM GMT+1

Bargoed to Barry Island

$595 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:11 AM GMT+1

Stratford (London) to Clapham Junction

$595 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:51 AM GMT+1

London Liverpool Street to Enfield Town

$595 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:28 AM GMT+1

Nottingham to London St Pancras International

$585 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:12 AM GMT+1

Cheltenham Spa to Cardiff Central

$532 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:40 AM GMT+1

Newport (S Wales) to Ebbw Vale Town

$530 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:47 AM GMT+1

Headbolt Lane to Liverpool Central

$528 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:36 AM GMT+1

Liverpool Central to Headbolt Lane

$526 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:11 AM GMT+1

Headbolt Lane to Liverpool Central

$525 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:16 AM GMT+1

Headbolt Lane to Liverpool Central

$525 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:56 AM GMT+1

Southport to Hunts Cross

$523 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:04 AM GMT+1

Liverpool Central to Headbolt Lane

$523 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:51 AM GMT+1

Liverpool Central to Headbolt Lane

$515 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:31 AM GMT+1

London St Pancras International to Paris Nord

$515 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 6:31 AM GMT+1

Cleethorpes to Barton-on-Humber

$508 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:11 AM GMT+1

Largs to Largs

$504 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:30 AM GMT+1

Portsmouth Harbour to Ryde Pier Head

$489 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:15 AM GMT+1

Largs to Largs

$483 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:10 AM GMT+1

Southport to Hillside

$471 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:10 AM GMT+1

London Liverpool Street to Cheshunt

$435 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:13 AM GMT+1

London Liverpool Street to Cheshunt

$430 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 8:43 AM GMT+1

Liverpool Central to Hillside

$348 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:15 AM GMT+1

Bradford Interchange to London Kings Cross

$342 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 6:58 AM GMT+1

Southport to Hillside

$290 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 9:25 AM GMT+1

London St Pancras International to Bruxelles Midi

$205 volDeparts Sat, Jul 18, 7:04 AM GMT+1

Rail disruption markets let you trade on whether a train will arrive on time, run late, or be cancelled across Great Britain's National Rail network. Each market poses a clear yes/no question with a defined delay threshold — for example, whether a service reaches its destination within ten minutes of the timetable. Prices move like live probabilities as the journey unfolds, so a delayed contract that climbs through the afternoon reflects the crowd pricing in mounting disruption. Every market commits to a public data source when it opens and settles automatically afterward from published National Rail arrival data — no operator discretion and no adjuster. Trading carries zero fees. Rail markets sit alongside flight and maritime contracts in GADUIN's supply-chain disruption category.

Supply-chain disruption markets How settlement works Flight disruption markets Shipping & chokepoint markets

Trading event contracts carries risk: you can lose the full amount you stake. Nothing on GADUIN is investment advice.

The prediction market for supply-chain disruption. Verifiable settlement from public data, open to agents.

Markets

Supply-chain disruption
Flights
Trains
Ships
Trending

Learn

How settlement works
Event contracts
Public data sources
Glossary

Help

About
FAQ
Agents & MCP
Press kit
Blog
Contact support

Account

Log in

Legal

Terms of use
Privacy
Token terms
User agreement

© 2026 GADUIN. All rights reserved.

Privacy Terms of use

Not available to U.S. persons. Trade responsibly.

About rail disruption markets

What these markets are

Rail markets cover scheduled services on Great Britain’s National Rail network — a specific train, like the 15:10 from London King’s Cross. You trade whether it arrives on time, runs delayed beyond the threshold, or is cancelled. Each market is tied to one timetabled service and closes at its due arrival. Rail disruption doesn't stay on the platform: a delayed or cancelled service cascades into missed connections and holds up the freight and workforce movements that keep regional supply chains running.

How to read the price

Prices read straight as probabilities. If "on time" is trading at 82%, the market puts a 4-in-5 chance on a punctual arrival and the contract costs about $0.82. Commuter-peak congestion, engineering works, or a cancelled earlier service in the diagram all move these numbers before the train has left the platform.

How settlement works

Trains settle from National Rail’s public running data (the Darwin real-time feed), which publishes actual arrival times and cancellations station by station. The recorded arrival at the destination against the working timetable decides the outcome, and the market resolves automatically from that feed.

Worked example

An evening intercity service opens at "on time" 75%. A signalling fault upstream is reported and "delayed" climbs to 70%. Darwin later records the train arriving 12 minutes late, past its threshold — the market settles "delayed" and those contracts pay $1 each.