Rail disruption markets
Delay and cancellation markets on Great Britain's National Rail network.
Birmingham New Street to Stansted Airport
Llandudno to Llandudno Junction
Bristol Temple Meads to Filton Abbey Wood
Saltburn to Darlington
Llandudno Junction to Llandudno
Bradford Forster Square to Ilkley
Weston-super-Mare to Severn Beach
Gourock to Glasgow Central
Glasgow Central to Gourock
Chichester to Brighton
Birmingham International to Llandudno Junction
Glasgow Central to Wemyss Bay
Milngavie to Springburn
Norwich to Sheringham
Liverpool Lime Street to Llandudno
Cardiff Central to Cheltenham Spa
Nottingham to Cardiff Central
Littlehampton to London Victoria
Gatwick Airport to Reading
London Paddington to Cheltenham Spa
Sheringham to Norwich
Blackpool South to Preston
Eastbourne to London Victoria
Clapham Junction to Stratford (London)
Airdrie to Balloch
Stratford (London) to Clapham Junction
Helensburgh Central to Edinburgh
Holyhead to Manchester Airport
Manchester Airport to Holyhead
London Kings Cross to Kings Lynn
Ramsgate to London St Pancras International
Dalston Junction to Clapham Junction
Kings Lynn to London Kings Cross
Portsmouth Harbour to Barnham
London Victoria to Ore
Cardiff Central to Holyhead
Crewe to Shrewsbury
London Victoria to Portsmouth Harbour
London Victoria to Portsmouth Harbour
Portsmouth Harbour to Horsham
Portsmouth Harbour to Horsham
Manchester Piccadilly to Bristol Temple Meads
London Paddington to Newquay
Milngavie to Springburn
London Fenchurch Street to Shoeburyness
Liverpool Central to Southport
London Fenchurch Street to Grays
Shoeburyness to London Fenchurch Street
London Fenchurch Street to Southend Central
London Fenchurch Street to Shoeburyness
London Fenchurch Street to Shoeburyness
Lincoln Central to Matlock
Cleethorpes to Barton-on-Humber
London Fenchurch Street to Grays
London Fenchurch Street to Southend Central
Shoeburyness to London Fenchurch Street
London Fenchurch Street to Shoeburyness
Portsmouth Harbour to Barnham
London St Pancras International to Paris Nord
Crewe to Wrexham General
Rail disruption markets let you trade on whether a train will arrive on time, run late, or be cancelled across Great Britain's National Rail network. Each market poses a clear yes/no question with a defined delay threshold — for example, whether a service reaches its destination within ten minutes of the timetable. Prices move like live probabilities as the journey unfolds, so a delayed contract that climbs through the afternoon reflects the crowd pricing in mounting disruption. Every market's terms are fixed when it opens, and it settles automatically afterward from official arrival data — with no operator discretion and no adjuster. Trading carries zero fees. Rail markets sit alongside flight and maritime contracts in GADUIN's supply-chain disruption category.
About rail disruption markets
What these markets are
Rail markets cover scheduled services on Great Britain’s National Rail network — a specific train, like the 15:10 from London King’s Cross. You trade whether it arrives on time, runs delayed beyond the threshold, or is cancelled. Each market is tied to one timetabled service and closes at its due arrival. Rail disruption doesn't stay on the platform: a delayed or cancelled service cascades into missed connections and holds up the freight and workforce movements that keep regional supply chains running.
How to read the price
Prices read straight as probabilities. If "on time" is trading at 82%, the market puts a 4-in-5 chance on a punctual arrival and the contract costs about $0.82. Commuter-peak congestion, engineering works, or a cancelled earlier service in the diagram all move these numbers before the train has left the platform.
How settlement works
Trains settle on the recorded arrival at the destination, read from official rail data and measured against the working timetable. Two independent official records must agree before a market settles, and an official cancellation is a settled outcome in its own right. The market resolves automatically against the terms fixed when it opened.
Worked example
An evening intercity service opens at "on time" 75%. A signalling fault upstream is reported and "delayed" climbs to 70%. The service is later recorded arriving 12 minutes late, past its threshold — the market settles "delayed" and those contracts pay $1 each.
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Related reading on rail delays
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- Hedge Deutsche Bahn Delays with Event Contracts | Gaduin
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- Rail Delay Event Contracts: How to Trade Train Delays
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- Hedge Train Delays in Europe: Rail Event Contracts
Hedge European train delays with event contracts on Deutsche Bahn, Eurostar, and SNCF — USDT settlement in minutes, not weeks.
Trading event contracts carries risk: you can lose the full amount you stake. Nothing on GADUIN is investment advice.