Rail disruption markets
Delay and cancellation markets on Great Britain's National Rail network.
Brighton to Ore
Colchester to Peterborough
Glasgow Central to Glasgow Central
Cambridge to Kings Lynn
Felixstowe to Ipswich
Cardiff Central to Cheltenham Spa
Reading to Redhill
London Kings Cross to Kings Lynn
Bristol Temple Meads to Severn Beach
Severn Beach to Bristol Temple Meads
Castleford to Leeds
York to Manchester Airport
Shoeburyness to London Fenchurch Street
Margate to London St Pancras International
Gillingham (Kent) to Luton
Bognor Regis to Barnham
Dover Priory to London St Pancras International
Gatwick Airport to Reading
Broadstairs to London St Pancras International
Kings Lynn to London Kings Cross
Margate to London St Pancras International
Barnham to Bognor Regis
Letchworth Garden City to London Kings Cross
Portsmouth Harbour to Horsham
Doncaster to Sheffield
Bognor Regis to Barnham
Sandwich to London St Pancras International
London St Pancras International to Faversham
Faversham to London St Pancras International
Gravesend to Maidstone West
Kings Lynn to London Kings Cross
Moorgate to Stevenage
London Fenchurch Street to Southend Central
London Euston to Glasgow Central
Portsmouth Harbour to Barnham
Penzance to Newquay
London Fenchurch Street to Shoeburyness
Sheffield to Leeds
Manchester Victoria to Headbolt Lane
London Fenchurch Street to Shoeburyness
London Fenchurch Street to Grays
Shoeburyness to London Fenchurch Street
London Fenchurch Street to Pitsea
Shoeburyness to London Fenchurch Street
London Fenchurch Street to Grays
Grays to London Fenchurch Street
Leigh-on-Sea to London Fenchurch Street
Corby to London St Pancras International
Shoeburyness to London Fenchurch Street
London Fenchurch Street to Pitsea
Bourne End to Marlow
London Fenchurch Street to Laindon
Cleethorpes to Barton-on-Humber
Bourne End to Marlow
London Fenchurch Street to Grays
Marlow to Bourne End
Shoeburyness to London Fenchurch Street
Marlow to Bourne End
London Marylebone to Gerrards Cross
Crewe to Wrexham General
Rail disruption markets let you trade on whether a train will arrive on time, run late, or be cancelled across Great Britain's National Rail network. Each market poses a clear yes/no question with a defined delay threshold — for example, whether a service reaches its destination within ten minutes of the timetable. Prices move like live probabilities as the journey unfolds, so a delayed contract that climbs through the afternoon reflects the crowd pricing in mounting disruption. Every market's terms are fixed when it opens, and it settles automatically afterward from official arrival data — with no operator discretion and no adjuster. Trading carries zero fees. Rail markets sit alongside flight and maritime contracts in GADUIN's supply-chain disruption category.
About rail disruption markets
What these markets are
Rail markets cover scheduled services on Great Britain’s National Rail network — a specific train, like the 15:10 from London King’s Cross. You trade whether it arrives on time, runs delayed beyond the threshold, or is cancelled. Each market is tied to one timetabled service and closes at its due arrival. Rail disruption doesn't stay on the platform: a delayed or cancelled service cascades into missed connections and holds up the freight and workforce movements that keep regional supply chains running.
How to read the price
Prices read straight as probabilities. If "on time" is trading at 82%, the market puts a 4-in-5 chance on a punctual arrival and the contract costs about $0.82. Commuter-peak congestion, engineering works, or a cancelled earlier service in the diagram all move these numbers before the train has left the platform.
How settlement works
Trains settle on the recorded arrival at the destination, read from official rail data and measured against the working timetable. Two independent official records must agree before a market settles, and an official cancellation is a settled outcome in its own right. The market resolves automatically against the terms fixed when it opened.
Worked example
An evening intercity service opens at "on time" 75%. A signalling fault upstream is reported and "delayed" climbs to 70%. The service is later recorded arriving 12 minutes late, past its threshold — the market settles "delayed" and those contracts pay $1 each.
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Related reading on rail delays
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- UK Train Delay Repay vs Event Contracts: Get Paid Faster
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- Hedge Deutsche Bahn Delays with Event Contracts | Gaduin
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- Rail Delay Event Contracts: How to Trade Train Delays
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- Hedge Train Delays in Europe: Rail Event Contracts
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Trading event contracts carries risk: you can lose the full amount you stake. Nothing on GADUIN is investment advice.