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Major ports & shipping disruptions

Ship arrival times and weekly traffic through Suez, Panama and Hormuz.

How will CARMEN arrive at Auckland on Dec 21?

How will CARMEN arrive at Auckland on Dec 21?

$48,328 volArrives Tue, Dec 22, 5:04 AM GMT+13
How will MSC AMY arrive at Le Havre on Nov 16?

How will MSC AMY arrive at Le Havre on Nov 16?

$6,457 volArrives Mon, Nov 16, 2:55 PM GMT+1
How will LONGEON arrive at Stockholm on Nov 15?

How will LONGEON arrive at Stockholm on Nov 15?

$9,468 volArrives Sun, Nov 15, 6:25 AM GMT+1
How will MISTEROY arrive at Trondheim on Nov 14?

How will MISTEROY arrive at Trondheim on Nov 14?

$8,817 volArrives Sat, Nov 14, 7:17 AM GMT+1
How will GULF WIND arrive at Rijeka on Nov 14?

How will GULF WIND arrive at Rijeka on Nov 14?

$3,535 volArrives Mon, Nov 16, 9:00 AM GMT+1
How will URSA MAJOR arrive at Rijeka on Nov 15?

How will URSA MAJOR arrive at Rijeka on Nov 15?

$2,313 volArrives Mon, Nov 16, 11:00 AM GMT+1
How will MSC TERESA arrive at Rijeka on Nov 15?

How will MSC TERESA arrive at Rijeka on Nov 15?

$1,682 volArrives Mon, Nov 16, 1:48 AM GMT+1
How will SIRENA arrive at Piraeus on Nov 15?

How will SIRENA arrive at Piraeus on Nov 15?

$661 volArrives Sun, Nov 15, 6:00 AM GMT+2
How will MSC AMALFI arrive at Genova on Nov 14?

How will MSC AMALFI arrive at Genova on Nov 14?

$1,972 volArrives Sun, Nov 15, 9:38 AM GMT+1

Showing the first 48 of 677. Add a filter to see the rest.

Some markets ask whether a single ship reaches port on time. Others ask how many ships pass through Suez, Panama or Hormuz in a week. Prices move with queues at anchor, low water at the locks and closures. Terms are fixed when a market opens, and markets settle on official arrival and transit records. Zero trading fees.

How shipping and chokepoint markets work

What you trade

Trade whether a ship reaches port on time, or how much traffic passes through a chokepoint like the Suez Canal or the Strait of Hormuz over a set period. Voyage markets open before the estimated arrival and close when the ship is due. Canal queues, port congestion and route changes can move prices for days.

Price

The price is the chance the market gives an outcome. An "on time arrival" share at 70¢ means a 70% chance the ship reaches port within the window, and it pays $1 if it does. Voyages last days, and ships can queue for a canal or change route, so these prices swing more than flight or train prices.

Settlement

Ship markets settle on official maritime and port records: the ship's recorded arrival, or the measured traffic through the chokepoint, compared with the value set when the market opened. Settlement is automatic. Nobody at GADUIN decides it.

Example

A container ship heading to Rotterdam through Suez opens with "on time" at 65%. The canal gets congested and tracking shows the ship anchored in the queue. "On time" drops to 30%. The ship arrives two days after its locked ETA. The on-time contract settles at $0 and the delayed side pays out.

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Trading is risky. The full amount you put in is at risk. Nothing on GADUIN is investment advice.