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Major ports & shipping disruptions

Every ETA is a prediction. Price the ones that won't hold, settled from the port's own record.

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Auckland

Paranagua

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Gent (Ghent)

Split

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Hvar

Albany

Kos

Korcula

Brisbane

Kerkira (Corfu)

Narrow the list with a filter to reach the rest — this view holds the first 50 of 852.

An arrival estimate is a forecast, and the market prices whether it holds. One market asks whether a single ship makes port on time; the next asks how many clear the Suez, Panama or Hormuz over a week — moved by a queue at anchor, a drought-hit lock, a closure nobody has priced yet. Every market fixes its terms when it opens and settles from the official arrival and throughput records. Trading carries zero fees.

How shipping and chokepoint markets work

What these markets are

Pick a voyage and trade whether it reaches port on time, or open a maritime chokepoint — the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz — and trade how much traffic clears it over a window. Voyage markets open ahead of the estimated arrival and close when it is due. A queue at a canal, congestion at the destination port, a diversion around trouble — each moves the price for days. When throughput falls, the delay runs down the supply chain into stockouts, idled factories and higher freight costs.

How to read the price

The price is the chance the market gives an outcome. An "on time arrival" share at 70¢ means a 70% chance the vessel reaches port inside the window, and it pays $1 if it does. Because voyages run for days and can queue for a canal transit or divert around trouble, these prices swing more than a flight's or a train's.

How settlement works

Ships settle on the official maritime and port record — the vessel's recorded arrival, or the measured throughput at the chokepoint — against the value fixed when the market opened. Settlement is automatic and nobody here decides it.

Worked example

A container ship bound for Rotterdam via Suez opens at "on time" 65%. Congestion builds at the canal and tracking shows the vessel anchored in the waiting queue; "on time" slides to 30%. It arrives two days behind its locked ETA — the on-time contract settles $0 and the delayed side is paid.

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Related reading on shipping delays

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Trading event contracts carries risk: you can lose the full amount you put in. Nothing on GADUIN is investment advice.