The data that settles our markets

An individual flight contract uses its fixed scheduled arrival, delay threshold and available arrival or cancellation evidence. The flight status pages distinguish scheduled, estimated and actual timestamps and show the observation update time when supplied. Departure times are the ones the airport’s own departures board shows: some airports report take-off, others the moment a flight leaves the gate, and each airport page says which. Where a contract depends on a departure, it uses that same reported time. Market-implied probability is a trading price, not confirmation of a delay. Coverage is limited to observed flights; an absent arrival does not prove cancellation or on-time performance.

Airport throughput contracts count the arrivals or departures named in the contract, in the counting unit fixed in its terms. Newer contracts count the flights the airport’s own arrivals or departures listing showed as arrived or departed during the airport-local calendar day, each flight once however many airline codes it is listed under; if that listing could not be read completely over the day, the contract is voided and every position is refunded in full. Older contracts count every airline code a completed flight was recorded under, as their own terms state. Cancelled flights do not count. Settlement waits until the day is over and the listing has had time to show its last flights. Running totals are provisional; an empty response is not a confirmed zero.

Weekly passage contracts use final transit counts from an official source. The contract identifies the ISO week, passage, threshold and inclusive comparison (at least or at most). Publication can lag the end of the week. A voyage contract instead compares arrival evidence with its locked arrival time. A lower passage count alone does not establish congestion or its cause.

Rail contracts refer to a particular service and destination and use official arrival records, with additional official records for corroboration where available. Coverage differs between networks. Predictions are not recorded arrivals. Check the service identifier, destination, timetable timestamp, threshold and cancellation evidence; coverage is not universal.

Trading close, the end of an observation window and settlement are different events. Data may arrive late, be revised or conflict. Automated checks can retry incomplete observations and send unresolved cases for review. A result is not guaranteed immediately after close or within a universal 24-hour period. Refer to the market’s visible status and fixed terms; missing evidence must not be treated as the outcome not happening.

Match the service or passage, date, destination and time zone to the contract. Record its threshold and whether the comparison includes equality. Compare the final observed timestamp or count with those terms, noting when the source published it and whether the period is complete. If the underlying observation or source is unavailable, the displayed outcome alone is not independently reproducible. For historical statistics, read the sample size and date range; missing journeys are not on-time journeys.