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The data that settles our markets

Published July 9, 2026 · last updated July 13, 2026

Every GADUIN market settles from authoritative, official data — the operational record that airlines, railways, ports, and maritime authorities work from themselves. Nothing is estimated here, and nobody at GADUIN decides an outcome.

A market is only as trustworthy as the data that settles it — and as the rule it is settled against. GADUIN uses established, authoritative sources rather than an operator's own numbers, and fixes each market's terms, the delay threshold and the scheduled time it is measured against, the moment the market opens. This guide explains what each kind of market actually measures, what happens when the data is incomplete, and why settling this way leaves no room for discretion.

What settles a flight market?

A flight market is decided by one number: the flight's recorded arrival, measured against the scheduled arrival that was fixed when the market opened. GADUIN reads that arrival from authoritative flight-tracking data — the operational record of what actually happened, not an estimate of what might. If the recorded arrival falls within the market's delay threshold, the flight counts as on time; past the threshold, the market settles delayed; and a flight that never operates settles as cancelled, which is treated as its own outcome rather than an extreme delay. Because both the threshold and the scheduled arrival are fixed at the open, the only thing still unknown when you trade is the flight itself.

What settles a rail market?

A rail market is decided by the recorded arrival of one specific timetabled service at its destination, measured against the working timetable. GADUIN reads that arrival from official rail data and confirms it against a second, independent official record: the two must agree before the market settles, which is what stops a single bad reading from deciding a market. A service arriving beyond the market's delay threshold settles as delayed, and an officially planned cancellation is treated as a settled outcome in its own right — a cancelled train has no arrival time, so there is nothing to measure a delay against. As in every other vertical, the threshold and the scheduled arrival are fixed when the market opens.

What settles a shipping market?

Maritime markets come in two shapes. A voyage market is decided by when a vessel actually arrives at its destination port, measured against the scheduled arrival fixed at the open. A chokepoint market — on passages such as the Suez and Panama canals, the Strait of Hormuz, and Bab-el-Mandeb — is decided instead by throughput: how much traffic clears the passage over the market's window, where a falling volume is a direct signal of congestion. Both settle from official maritime and port records. Throughput counts publish on a lag of a few days, which is why a chokepoint market settles some time after its window closes rather than the instant it ends.

What do “delay threshold” and “throughput” mean?

Two pieces of vocabulary do most of the work on this page. A delay threshold is the number of minutes past the scheduled time at which an arrival stops counting as on time and starts counting as delayed; it is set per market and fixed when the market opens, so a fifteen-minute market and a thirty-minute market on the same flight can settle to different outcomes. Throughput is the volume of traffic that clears a port or chokepoint over a period of time, where a falling figure is a direct signal of congestion. Everything else follows from those two: an arrival market compares a recorded time against a threshold, and a throughput market compares a measured volume against a level.

Are the rules set before trading starts?

Yes, and this is the part that matters most. A market's terms — the service it refers to, the delay threshold, and the scheduled time that threshold is measured against — are fixed at the moment the market opens, before anyone has traded. They are part of the question the market asks, and they cannot be changed afterwards. So the rule you read when you buy is the rule that pays you out; no one — including GADUIN — can move the goalposts once money is on the table, and every trader in a market is working from the same terms.

What if the data has a gap?

No feed is perfect: a service is cancelled, a record is missing, or two sources briefly disagree. When an outcome cannot be read unambiguously, the market moves to a disputed state and a human reviewer resolves it within 24 hours against the same evidence and the market's fixed terms — applying the rule, never overriding it. If no outcome can be established at all, the market is voided and every stake is refunded in full rather than settled on a guess. It is the rare exception that keeps automatic settlement robust.

How can I verify a settlement myself?

You are not asked to take GADUIN's word for an outcome. A market states the service it refers to, the delay threshold, and the scheduled time that threshold is measured against, and none of those can change once trading has started. When the market settles, the outcome is shown against those same terms — so checking a settlement means comparing what actually happened against a rule that was published before anyone traded. Arrival times and cancellations for scheduled flights, trains, and voyages are matters of operational record, so the underlying event is checkable independently of us — the same check an automated agent would run.

Why settle from official data at all?

Official data leaves no room for operator discretion. There is no house deciding whether you won and no adjuster weighing a claim — the outcome is a recorded measurement, applied by an automated pipeline to terms that were fixed before the first trade. It also makes the markets legible to software: an agent can read a market's terms, read the outcome it settled to, and confirm that one follows from the other, which is why these markets are straightforward for automated traders to work with. See how settlement works for the full mechanism.

Settlement data, in brief

Do you decide outcomes yourselves?
No. Every market settles from established, authoritative sources — the official operational record of what happened — not from an operator's own numbers and not from anyone's judgement.
Can I check a result myself?
Yes. A market's terms are part of the question it asks, and the settled outcome is shown against them, so you can see exactly which rule was applied and what it produced.
Where does GADUIN say what a market settles on?
In the market itself. The service, the delay threshold, and the scheduled time that threshold is measured against are all part of the question, and they stay visible for the whole life of the market.
Can the rules change mid-market?
No. A market's terms are fixed when it opens and cannot change once trading has started, so the rule you see is the rule that settles it.

Keep exploring

For the big picture, start at the supply-chain disruption category hub. For account, deposit, and settlement specifics, the FAQ goes deeper.