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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is an exchange where people buy and sell shares in the outcome of a real-world question, such as “Will this flight arrive on time?” Each share pays $1.00 if its outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so a price between 1¢ and 99¢ reads as the market's chance.
This guide covers how prices work, what a payout looks like, how markets settle and what can go wrong, with worked examples from GADUIN's markets on flights, trains and shipping.
Published July 9, 2026 · last updated September 26, 2026
The whole idea in three numbers
$1.00
paid per share on the outcome that happens
62¢ = 62%
the price reads as the market's chance
1 ÷ price
your payout multiplier: a 62¢ share pays out x1.61
How does a prediction market work?
Every market asks one question with a fixed set of outcomes: On time, Delayed or Cancelled for a flight, or Yes and No for a weekly ship count. You buy shares in the outcome you expect. While trading is open you can buy more, or sell what you hold at the current price. When the event is over, the market settles from the official record: each share of the outcome that happens pays $1.00, and every other share pays $0.
What does the price mean?
The price is the market's implied probability. A share at 62¢ means the market gives that outcome about a 62% chance. Flip it over and you get the payout multiplier: $1.00 ÷ 62¢ = x1.61, so each $1 you put in at that price returns $1.61 if the outcome happens. The payout calculator runs the numbers for any price.
A worked example: one flight, three outcomes
Take a market on a single flight with three outcomes. The prices below are illustrative; every live market shows its own.
| Outcome | Price | Implied chance | Pays out | $10.00 returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On time | 70¢ | 70% | x1.42 | $14.28 |
| Delayed | 24¢ | 24% | x4.16 | $41.66 |
| Cancelled | 6¢ | 6% | x16.66 | $166.66 |
Say you expect the flight to run late and put $10.00 on Delayed at 24¢. You hold 41.66 shares. If the flight arrives past the market's delay threshold, those shares pay $41.66. If it lands on time or is cancelled, they settle at $0, and the holders of that outcome collect instead.
Spot figures before price impact. A larger order moves the price as it fills, and the ticket shows your exact average price and payout before you confirm.
What can you trade on a prediction market?
A prediction market can ask anything with a checkable answer; other platforms list elections, sport, economics and culture. GADUIN lists transport only: individual flights (on time, delayed or cancelled), train services, ship voyages, daily arrival counts at major airports, and weekly ship counts through maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
Who sets the price?
Trading does. On GADUIN, every trade is priced by a fixed formula: buying an outcome pushes its price up, selling pushes it down, and the prices of a market's outcomes always add up to 100%. Each market opens at a starting price; after that, only trading moves it. A big order moves the price as it fills, so the ticket shows your average price and exact payout before you confirm.
How are prediction markets settled?
Every market fixes its terms before the first trade: the exact service, the reference time and the delay threshold. When the event is over, the outcome is read from the official record and applied to those terms. Each share of the outcome that happens pays $1.00 into your balance; the rest pay $0. If records are missing or conflict, settlement pauses for review, and a market whose outcome cannot be established is voided and refunded. How settlement works walks through it step by step.
Are prediction markets accurate?
A price sums up what traders are willing to pay; it is not a guarantee. Markets with plenty of trading tend to absorb new information quickly, while thin markets can sit at a stale price or jump on a single order. Read the price together with how much has traded, and treat it as one signal among several: the flight can still do the opposite of what the market expects.
Prediction market vs sportsbook
A sportsbook sets its own line and builds its margin into it. In a prediction market, trading sets the price, each share pays a fixed $1.00 on the outcome that happens, and you can usually sell before the event. GADUIN adds no trading fee on top of the price. The full breakdown is in prediction market vs sportsbook.
How do prediction market platforms compare?
Other prediction markets list event contracts too, across politics, sport, economics and culture. How GADUIN compares sets out markets, fees, funding and access side by side, checked against each operator's own pages.
What are the risks?
A position can settle at $0. If the outcome you picked doesn't happen, the full amount you put in is at risk. Prices can move against you before settlement, and a sale is never guaranteed at the price you want. Nothing on GADUIN is investment advice. Only put in what you're comfortable seeing go to zero, and check your local laws first.
Where is GADUIN available?
GADUIN is operated by Gaduin Inc., a company incorporated in Panama. It is not registered with, or licensed by, any securities or derivatives regulator. The service is not available to US persons or to residents of restricted jurisdictions. Check your local laws and read the Terms before trading.
Key terms
Each one is defined in a line in the glossary.
Prediction markets, in brief
- What does a price of 62¢ mean?
- The market gives that outcome about a 62% chance. A share bought at 62¢ pays $1.00 if the outcome happens, a payout of x1.61, and $0 if it doesn't.
- Can I sell before the event happens?
- You may sell while trading is open and your order can be filled. The ability to execute a sale and the price received are not guaranteed. Check the current market state and quote.
- Is there a minimum or maximum trade?
- A trade must be at least $1, and there are two ceilings above it: one on any single trade, and one on the total you have traded across every market. They start at $50 and $500, and an account can be set differently — so your own per-trade range is shown under the amount you enter, and if a trade would pass your total, the trade panel names that ceiling and how much of it is left. Within those limits, very large orders fill at a progressively higher average price, so the bigger the order the more the price moves as you buy.
- Do I pay a fee to trade?
- No. GADUIN charges no trading or settlement fee: you pay the market price, and each share of the outcome that happens pays the full $1.00.
- Is a prediction market position insurance?
- No. A position is not an insurance policy or a claim for travel compensation, and a price is not confirmed travel status. It pays only under the market's published rules.
See it on a live market
Pick a flight, a train or a shipping lane and see the price, what it pays out and when it closes, before you put in a cent.