Learn
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is an exchange where people trade shares in the answer to a real-world question, like “Will this flight arrive on time?” A share pays $1.00 if its outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't. So the price, from 1¢ to 99¢, is the market's chance of that outcome.
The examples below use GADUIN's flight, train and shipping markets.
Published July 9, 2026 · last updated September 29, 2026
Key numbers
$1.00
paid per share if your outcome happens
62¢ = 62%
the price is the market's chance
1 ÷ price
your payout multiplier: a 62¢ share pays out x1.61
How does a prediction market work?
Each market asks one question with a fixed set of outcomes: On time, Delayed or Cancelled for a flight, or Yes and No for a weekly ship count. You buy shares in the outcome you expect, and you can buy more while trading is open. On GADUIN you can't sell shares back, so you hold them until the market settles. After the event, the market settles on the official record. Each share of the outcome that happens pays $1.00. All other shares pay $0.
What does the price mean?
The price is the market's implied probability. A share at 62¢ means the market gives that outcome about a 62% chance. Divide $1.00 by the price to get your multiplier: $1.00 ÷ 62¢ = x1.61. So each $1 you put in at 62¢ returns $1.61 if the outcome happens. Try any price in the payout calculator.
Example: one flight, three outcomes
Here is a market on one flight with three outcomes. These are sample prices. Live markets show their own.
| Outcome | Price | Chance | Pays out | $10.00 returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On time | 70¢ | 70% | x1.42 | $14.28 |
| Delayed | 24¢ | 24% | x4.16 | $41.66 |
| Cancelled | 6¢ | 6% | x16.66 | $166.66 |
Say you expect the flight to be late and buy $10.00 of Delayed at 24¢. That gets you 41.66 shares. If the flight arrives past the market's delay threshold, they pay $41.66. If it lands on time or is cancelled, they pay $0.
These figures assume a small order. Bigger orders move the price as they fill. The trade ticket shows your exact average price and payout before you confirm.
What can you trade on a prediction market?
Any question with a checkable answer can be a prediction market. Other platforms list elections, sports, economics and culture. GADUIN lists transport only: single flights (on time, delayed or cancelled), train services, ship voyages, daily arrival counts at major airports, and weekly ship counts through maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
Who sets the price?
Trading does. GADUIN prices every trade with a fixed formula called LMSR. Buying an outcome pushes its price up and the others down. A market's prices always add up to 100%. Each market opens at a starting price, and after that only trades move it. A large order moves the price as it fills.
How are prediction markets settled?
Each market fixes its terms before the first trade: the exact service, the reference time and the delay threshold. After the event, the official record decides the outcome under those terms. Each share of the outcome that happens pays $1.00 into your balance. The rest pay $0. If records are missing or conflict, settlement pauses for review. If the outcome can't be established, the market is voided and refunded. How settlement works has every step.
Are prediction markets accurate?
A price shows what traders are willing to pay. It's no guarantee. Busy markets usually react to news quickly. Thin markets can sit at an old price or jump on a single order. Check how much has traded, and remember the flight can still do the opposite of what the price suggests.
Prediction market vs sportsbook
A sportsbook sets its own line and builds its margin into it. In a prediction market, trading sets the price and each share pays a fixed $1.00 on the outcome that happens. GADUIN adds no trading fee on top of the price. The full breakdown is in prediction market vs sportsbook.
How do prediction market platforms compare?
Other prediction markets also list event contracts, on politics, sports, economics and culture. How GADUIN compares puts markets, fees, funding and access side by side, checked against each platform's own pages.
What are the risks?
A position can settle at $0. If your outcome doesn't happen, the full amount you put in is gone. Prices can move against you before settlement, and on GADUIN you can't sell a position before it settles. Nothing on GADUIN is investment advice. Only put in money you can spare, and check your local laws first.
Where is GADUIN available?
GADUIN is operated by Gaduin Inc., a company incorporated in Panama. It is not registered with, or licensed by, any securities or derivatives regulator. The service is not available to US persons or to residents of restricted jurisdictions. Check your local laws and read the Terms before trading.
Common questions
- What does a price of 62¢ mean?
- The market gives that outcome about a 62% chance. A share bought at 62¢ pays $1.00 if the outcome happens (x1.61) and $0 if it doesn't.
- Can I sell before the event happens?
- No. On GADUIN you can only buy, and you hold your shares until the market settles. A position can settle at $0, so only put in money you can spare.
- Is there a minimum or maximum trade?
- The minimum trade is $1. There are two caps above it: one per trade, and one on your total across all markets. They start at $50 and $500, and an account can be set differently. Your own per-trade range shows under the amount you enter. If a trade would go over your total, the trade panel shows that cap and how much is left. Within those limits, bigger orders fill at a higher average price, because the price moves as you buy.
- Do I pay a fee to trade?
- No. GADUIN charges no trading or settlement fee. You pay the market price, and each share of the outcome that happens pays the full $1.00.
- Is a prediction market position insurance?
- No. A position isn't an insurance policy or a claim for travel compensation, and a price doesn't confirm travel status. It pays only under the market's published rules.
See a live market
Pick a flight, train or shipping lane to see its price, payout and closing time.
Keep learning
Start with the basics: All prediction market guides
Browse prediction markets by transport mode
- Flight delay prediction marketsTrade whether a single flight arrives on time, delayed or is cancelled.
- Train delay prediction marketsMarkets on individual train services and their arrival at the destination.
- Shipping and port prediction marketsShips arriving in port and weekly traffic through the busiest straits and canals.
- Supply-chain disruption marketsFlight, rail and shipping delays, and the markets that price them.
Related guides
- How prices move: the LMSR pricing formula explained
- How a market settles from the official record
- How flight delay markets work