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Prediction market payout calculator
A prediction market price is the market's chance, in cents. A 40¢ share means a 40% chance and pays $1.00 if its outcome happens, so every $1 you put in returns $2.50. That's a payout multiplier of x2.50, or 1 ÷ price.
Calculator
From 2 to 99.
What you put in, in dollars.
If this outcome happens
$25.00x2.50
Pays out
- Implied chance
- 40%
- Payout multiplier
- x2.50
- Shares
- 25
- Net return
- +$15.00
If any other outcome happens, these shares settle at $0.
Estimate at this price. Large orders fill at a higher average price.
The formula
A share pays $1.00 if its outcome happens. So shares = amount ÷ price, payout = shares × $1.00, payout multiplier = 1 ÷ price, and implied chance = price ÷ $1.00. The multiplier and payout are rounded down to the cent, so the number shown is never more than you'd get.
Worked examples
What $10.00 returns at common prices, if the outcome happens:
| Price | Implied chance | Payout multiplier | $10.00 pays out | Net return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 10% | x10.00 | $100.00 | +$90.00 |
| 25¢ | 25% | x4.00 | $40.00 | +$30.00 |
| 40¢ | 40% | x2.50 | $25.00 | +$15.00 |
| 50¢ | 50% | x2.00 | $20.00 | +$10.00 |
| 62¢ | 62% | x1.61 | $16.12 | +$6.12 |
| 75¢ | 75% | x1.33 | $13.33 | +$3.33 |
| 81¢ | 81% | x1.23 | $12.34 | +$2.34 |
| 90¢ | 90% | x1.11 | $11.11 | +$1.11 |
Price = chance
A price in cents is the chance in percent: 40¢ is a 40% chance, 81¢ is 81%. It's the market's estimate, set by trading, and it can be wrong.
The payout multiplier
The multiplier tells you how many times your amount comes back if the outcome happens. It is 1 ÷ price: 50¢ pays out x2.00, 25¢ pays out x4.00 and 81¢ pays out x1.23. Cheaper outcomes pay out more because the market thinks they are less likely.
Buying Yes or No
In a two-outcome market, one Yes share and one No share together always pay exactly $1.00, so their prices add up to about $1.00. If Yes trades at 70¢, No is about 30¢. Buying No at 30¢ pays out x3.33 if Yes doesn't happen.
Three-outcome markets
Flight, train and voyage markets on GADUIN have three outcomes: On time, Delayed and Cancelled. Exactly one of them happens, so their prices add up to 100%. A Cancelled share at 6¢ pays out x16.66 because the market sees a cancellation as unlikely.
Why prices move
Prices move when people trade on new information, like a late inbound plane, a storm on the route, a signal failure or ships queuing at anchor. The price you see is the market's view right now, and it can change until the market closes.
Price impact
The calculator uses one spot price. A real order moves the price as it fills, because each share you buy makes the next one cost a little more. So a large order fills at a higher average price than the one on screen. The GADUIN ticket shows your average price and exact payout before you confirm.
Holding to settlement
You can only buy on GADUIN. Shares can't be sold back before the market settles. The calculator shows what your shares pay if the outcome happens. If any other outcome happens, they pay $0.
Fees
GADUIN charges no trading fee and no settlement fee, so the payout shown is what you get. Each share of the outcome that happens pays the full $1.00. Other platforms publish their own fee formulas. See how GADUIN compares with other prediction markets.
Payout questions
- How do you calculate a prediction market payout?
- Divide the amount by the price to get shares, then multiply by $1.00. $10 at 40¢ buys 25 shares, which pay $25.00 if the outcome happens: a payout multiplier of x2.50.
- What is implied probability?
- The chance a price implies. Because a share pays $1.00, a price of 62¢ implies about a 62% chance. It is the market's estimate, and it can be wrong.
- Why is the multiplier rounded down?
- So the number shown is never more than you'd actually get. 1 ÷ 7¢ is 14.2857…, which shows as x14.28.
- Does the calculator include fees?
- There are no fees to include on GADUIN: no trading fee and no settlement fee. On other platforms, subtract their published fee from the payout.
Try it on a live market
Each market shows its price and what a share pays out. Pick one that's about to close.
Keep learning
Start with the basics: What a prediction market is and how it works