Flight delay prediction markets

What is a flight delay prediction market?

A flight delay prediction market asks one question about one scheduled flight on one date: will it arrive on time, arrive late or be cancelled? Each market names the flight number, the route, the scheduled arrival it is measured against and its delay threshold in minutes. A flight counts as delayed when it arrives more than that threshold after its scheduled arrival.

Every outcome has a price between 0¢ and $1, and one share of the outcome that happens pays $1. That makes the price the crowd’s current probability: if Delayed trades at 30¢, traders together put the chance of a delay at about 30%. Prices move as people trade on what they know — the weather at the destination, a late inbound aircraft, congestion at the airport — so a market often moves before the departure board does. The price is an estimate, not a status report.

Settlement does not depend on anyone’s opinion. Each market settles on the arrival time recorded for the flight at its destination airport, compared with the scheduled arrival the market was listed with. A cancelled flight settles as Cancelled. Trading stops as soon as the result can no longer change — once the scheduled arrival plus the delay threshold has passed, or once the flight’s outcome is on record — so nobody can buy a result that is already known.

To keep these markets fair, no trader can be paid more than $100 on any one outcome of any one market, however many trades they make. The market integrity page sets out the other rules that keep these markets fair.

If you only want to know whether your flight is late, check its live status instead: flight status pages show scheduled and actual times, delay minutes and each flight’s recent on-time record.

Flight delay market questions

What does a flight delay market ask?

Whether one scheduled flight on one date arrives on time, arrives more than the market’s delay threshold late, or is cancelled. The flight number, route, scheduled arrival and threshold are fixed when the market is listed.

What does the price of an outcome mean?

It is the market’s probability for that outcome. One share of the outcome that happens pays $1, so an outcome trading at 30¢ is one the crowd rates at about a 30% chance.

How is the result decided?

By the arrival time recorded for the flight at its destination airport, compared with the scheduled arrival the market was listed with. A cancelled flight settles as Cancelled.

What is the most one trader can be paid?

$100 on any one outcome of any one market. The limit counts everything a trader already holds on that outcome, so splitting an order into smaller trades does not raise it.

When does trading close?

As soon as the result can no longer change: once the scheduled arrival plus the delay threshold has passed, or once the flight’s arrival or cancellation is on record, whichever comes first.

Is the price a flight status?

No. A price is the crowd’s estimate. For scheduled and actual times and delay minutes, check the flight’s status page.