Flight disruption markets
Will-it-arrive-on-time markets, settled automatically from official data.
Russia, Moscow to Russia, Saratov
United States, Miami to Puerto Rico, San Juan
Indonesia, Jakarta to Singapore, Singapore
Russia, Moscow to Russia, Saransk
United States, New York to Germany, Berlin
China, Chengdu to Thailand, Phuket
Taiwan, Taipei to France, Paris
Canada, Toronto to Canada, Winnipeg
India, Bangalore to Germany, Munich
Taiwan, Taipei to Malaysia, Penang
Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur to Thailand, Phuket
Canada, Toronto to Canada, Abbotsford
Russia, Moscow to Russia, Volgograd
United Arab Emirates, Dubai to Singapore, Singapore
Saudi Arabia, Jeddah to Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur
United States, Atlanta to Switzerland, Zurich
Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur to Malaysia, Langkawi
Canada, Vancouver to United States, Denver
Canada, Toronto to Canada, Edmonton
Denmark, Copenhagen to France, Paris
Spain, Malaga to Spain, Melilla Island
Russia, Moscow to Russia, Saratov
Thailand, Bangkok to Thailand, Phuket
Japan, Tokyo to France, Paris
Thailand, Bangkok to Thailand, Phuket
Netherlands, Amsterdam to France, Paris
United States, Seattle to United States, Palm Springs
Italy, Rome to Greece, Skiathos
Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur to Thailand, Phuket
Canada, Vancouver to Canada, Victoria
Türkiye, Antalya to Germany, Dresden
Spain, Barcelona to France, Paris
India, New Delhi to India, Mumbai
Australia, Sydney to Australia, Cairns
Taiwan, Taipei to Hong Kong SAR China, Hong Kong
Mexico, Mexico City to Mexico, Merida
Türkiye, Antalya to Poland, Katowice
Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur to Malaysia, Langkawi
Russia, St. Petersburg to Russia, Archangelsk
Russia, Moscow to Russia, Kaliningrad
Canada, Vancouver to Canada, Victoria
Spain, Barcelona to Morocco, Fes
United States, Chicago to Italy, Rome
Russia, Moscow to Russia, Yekaterinburg
United States, Los Angeles to China, Shanghai
Türkiye, Istanbul to Türkiye, Kars
Saudi Arabia, Riyadh to Saudi Arabia, Jeddah
Türkiye, Arnavutkoy to Serbia, Belgrad
United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi to Switzerland, Geneva
China, Shenzhen to China, Shanghai
Türkiye, Arnavutkoy to Greece, Athens
Mexico, Cancun to Colombia, Bogota
Austria, Vienna to Romania, Bucharest
India, New Delhi to India, Mumbai
Indonesia, Jakarta to Indonesia, Denpasar-Bali Island
Indonesia, Jakarta to Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur
China, Shenzhen to China, Shanghai
Türkiye, Istanbul to Türkiye, Batman
United States, Chicago to United States, Las Vegas
Türkiye, Arnavutkoy to Montenegro, Tivat
Flight disruption markets let you trade on whether a specific flight will arrive on time, run late, or be cancelled. Each market poses a clear yes/no question with a defined delay threshold — for example, whether a flight arrives within fifteen minutes of its scheduled arrival. Prices move like live probabilities as the flight progresses, so an on-time contract quoted near 95% reflects a crowd that expects a smooth landing. Every market's terms are fixed when it opens, and it settles automatically afterward from official data — the flight's recorded arrival, measured against the scheduled arrival — with no operator discretion and no adjuster. Trading carries zero fees. Flight markets are one wedge of GADUIN's broader supply-chain disruption category, alongside rail and maritime contracts.
About flight disruption markets
What these markets are
Each flight market is a contract on a single scheduled departure — for example UA 4557 on a given date. You trade whether it will arrive on time, land delayed past a fixed threshold, or be cancelled. Markets list roughly 48 hours before departure and close when the aircraft is due. Because much of the world's high-value, time-critical air cargo travels in the belly of these same passenger jets, a delay or cancellation ripples straight into air-freight schedules and just-in-time supply chains.
How to read the price
A price is the market-implied probability of an outcome. An "on time" contract quoted at 99% costs about $0.99 and pays $1 if the flight lands on schedule — a thin 1.01x return because the crowd thinks a smooth arrival is near-certain. When weather or a tight turnaround raises the delay risk, the on-time price falls and the delayed price rises to match.
How settlement works
Flights settle on the recorded arrival, read from authoritative flight-tracking data and measured against the scheduled arrival. No manual call is made: the market resolves automatically against the terms fixed when it opened.
Worked example
A transatlantic flight opens with "on time" at 88% and "delayed" at 11%. A storm builds over the destination and traders push "delayed" to 60%. The flight lands 40 minutes late, past the delay threshold — "delayed" holders are paid $1 per contract, everyone else $0.
Browse by airline
Related reading on flight delays
- Airline Schedule Padding: Why On-Time Stats Mislead
Learn how airline schedule padding changes A14 results, why D0 measures a different event, and what transport event-contract traders should check.
- FAA Ground Delay Programs as an Event Contract Signal
How to read an FAA ground delay program in real time — rate, scope, EDCT, revisions — and turn it into probability updates on GADUIN flight contracts.
- Overnight Delay Risk: Aircraft Rotation & Crew Rest Limits
Why first-wave and last-of-day flights delay differently: aircraft rotation chains, FAA Part 117 and EASA crew rest limits, and how traders price the risk.
- Airport Slot Controls & Congestion: Why Hubs Always Delay
Learn how IATA slot coordination works, why Level 3 airports like LHR, JFK and CDG run chronically late, and how to hedge congestion delay risk.
- DOT Tarmac Delay Rule vs EU261: Rights on the Plane
Compare US DOT's 3-hour tarmac rule with EU261 compensation tiers, understand where both fall short, and learn how event contracts hedge delay risk.
- How to Book Connecting Flights to Minimize Delay Risk
How to book connecting flights and minimize missed-connection risk: MCT buffers, airline OTP, single-ticket rights, and flight-delay event contracts.
Trading event contracts carries risk: you can lose the full amount you stake. Nothing on GADUIN is investment advice.