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Glossary

Look up any word you meet on the site. Each entry is one short, standalone definition in plain English — short enough to quote, specific enough to settle an argument.

Where useful, terms point to the fuller explainers in Learn.

Prediction markets and pricing

Prediction market: A marketplace where people trade contracts on future events. Because real money is on the line, a contract’s price reads as the chance the market gives that outcome.
Event contract: A contract on one outcome of a real-world event that pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. Its price between those values is the chance the market gives the event. A market carries two outcomes or three, depending on what it asks.
Outcome: One of the fixed answers a market’s question allows, such as On time, Delayed or Cancelled. Exactly one outcome happens, and only its shares pay at settlement.
Share: One unit of an outcome. It pays $1.00 if that outcome happens and $0 if it does not; its price is what the market charges for it now.
Position: Everything one account holds on one outcome of one market: the shares bought and what they cost. On GADUIN a position is held until the market settles; there is no selling back before then.
Implied probability: The chance a price implies. Because a share pays $1.00 if its outcome happens, a price of 62¢ implies about a 62% chance.
Payout multiplier: How many times your amount comes back if the outcome happens: 1 ÷ price, rounded down. A 40¢ share pays out x2.50.
Pricing formula: The fixed rule that prices every GADUIN trade: buying an outcome raises its price and lowers the others, and a market’s prices always add up to 100%. On GADUIN that rule is the LMSR.
LMSR (logarithmic market scoring rule): The pricing formula behind every GADUIN market. It keeps a cost function C(q) = b · ln(Σ e^(qᵢ/b)) over the shares sold of each outcome; a trade costs the change in C, and each price is e^(qᵢ/b) ÷ Σ e^(qⱼ/b), so prices always add up to 100%.
Cost function: The LMSR’s running total C(q) for a market, given how many shares of each outcome have been sold. Buying shares costs exactly C after the trade minus C before it, which is how every price and every fill on GADUIN is calculated.
Depth parameter (b): The number b in the LMSR cost function that sets how far a trade moves the price. A larger b makes a market deeper: the same amount moves the price less. It is fixed when the market opens.
Depth policy: How GADUIN chooses b. Most markets take the depth at which an evenly priced market can pay out at most $100 beyond the money traders put in: b = $100 ÷ ln(number of outcomes), about 144.27 for two outcomes and 91.02 for three. A few of the busiest shipping passages run deeper, at b = 1,500.
Price impact: The way an order moves the price as it fills. Each share bought makes the next one dearer, so a larger order fills at a higher average price than the one on screen. How far it moves depends on the market’s depth, b.
Average fill price: What you paid per share on a trade: the amount divided by the shares received. It sits between the price before and the price after your trade, and the ticket shows it before you confirm.
Quote: The shares, average price and payout an amount would buy at the market’s current state, calculated before you confirm a trade. The trade itself is priced again at the moment it is placed.
Opening price: The price each outcome carries when a market opens, before any trade. After that, only trading moves it.
Three-outcome market: A market with On time, Delayed and Cancelled outcomes, used for single flights, trains and voyages. Exactly one happens, so the three prices add up to 100%.
Two-outcome (Yes/No) market: A market with only Yes and No, used for counts such as daily airport arrivals or weekly ships through a chokepoint. One Yes share and one No share together always pay exactly $1.00.
Maximum payout per position: The most one account can be paid on one outcome of one market: $100, which is 100 shares. Trades on the same outcome count together, so splitting an amount across several trades does not raise it.
Trade limits: A trade must be at least $1. Above that sit two ceilings, one on any single trade and one on the total traded across every market; they start at $50 and $500, and the trade panel shows your own.

Settlement and rules

Settlement: What happens once a market’s event is over: each share of the outcome that happens pays $1.00, and every other share pays $0. On GADUIN, settlement is automatic.
Payout: What a position pays at settlement: $1.00 for each share of the outcome that happens, credited to your balance with no settlement fee.
Official-data settlement: Settling a market from official data rather than an operator’s judgement. The outcome is read from the data and applied to the market’s fixed terms, so nobody here decides who is paid.
Settlement terms: The delay threshold a market uses and the scheduled time that threshold is measured against. Both are fixed when the market opens and cannot change afterwards, so every trade is made against the same rule and settlement applies exactly those terms.
Delay threshold: The number of minutes past the scheduled time that separates an on-time arrival from a delayed one for a given market. Each market’s question says which side an arrival exactly on the threshold falls, and that fixed rule decides the contract.
Flight delay rule: In a GADUIN flight market, Delayed means arriving more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. An arrival exactly 15 minutes late still counts as On time.
Train delay rule: In a GADUIN train market, Delayed means arriving 5 minutes or more after the timetabled arrival. An arrival exactly 5 minutes late already counts as Delayed.
Reference schedule: The scheduled time a market measures lateness against, such as a flight’s scheduled arrival. It is written into the market’s terms when it opens, so a later timetable change does not move it.
Trading close: The moment a market stops accepting trades. Each market shows its own close; after it, the market waits for the record and then settles.
Settlement review: What happens when records are missing, late or in conflict: settlement pauses and the evidence is checked against the market’s fixed terms. Timing depends on the evidence available.
Voided market: A market closed without an outcome because its result cannot be established under its terms. Positions are refunded under the market’s rules.
Refund: Money returned to your balance when a market is voided, so a position that could not be settled costs nothing.
Cancellation: When a scheduled service does not run at all. A cancellation is its own settled outcome, defined in the market’s terms — not a very long delay.
Diversion: When a flight lands somewhere other than its scheduled destination. If it still reaches the destination later, a GADUIN flight market settles on that arrival; if it ends its journey elsewhere, the market settles Cancelled.

Aviation

Flight number: An airline’s two-character code followed by a number, such as BA117, that names one scheduled flight. The same number flies every day, so a market also names the date.
IATA code: The short codes most travellers see: two characters for an airline (BA) and three letters for an airport (LHR). Booking references and boarding passes use them.
ICAO code: The codes used by air traffic control: three letters for an airline (BAW) and four for an airport (EGLL). BAW117 and BA117 are the same flight.
Codeshare: One flight sold under several airlines’ flight numbers. Only one airline operates it, and every codeshare number arrives at the same moment.
Flight leg: One take-off and one landing. A flight number that stops on the way flies two legs, and each leg has its own scheduled and actual times.
Scheduled arrival: The arrival time in the published timetable. A flight market measures delay against the scheduled arrival fixed in its terms when it opens.
Actual arrival: When the flight arrived, as the destination airport itself reports it. Airports differ on which moment they publish, so GADUIN uses the time that airport reports.
Arrival delay: Actual arrival minus scheduled arrival, in minutes. It is what a flight market’s 15-minute rule is applied to.
Departure delay: How late a flight leaves compared with its scheduled departure. A late departure often, but not always, means a late arrival, because schedules include spare time.
On-time performance: The share of flights that arrive within 15 minutes of schedule, the usual industry measure of punctuality for an airline, airport or route.
Arrivals board: An airport’s own published list of arriving flights with their scheduled and actual times. It is the destination airport’s record that settles a flight market.
Aircraft position broadcast: The signal an aircraft’s transponder sends with its identity and position while it flies. It is how an aircraft’s position is known in flight.
Hub airport: An airport where an airline concentrates its connecting flights. Disruption at a hub spreads quickly because many flights depend on the same aircraft and crews.
Air traffic flow restriction: A limit air traffic control puts on how many flights may enter busy airspace or land at an airport, often in bad weather. Flights held by it depart late.
Turnaround: The time an aircraft spends on the ground between arriving and leaving again: unloading, cleaning, refuelling and boarding.
Knock-on delay: A delay passed along from an earlier flight: when the incoming aircraft arrives late, the next departure with that aircraft usually leaves late too.

Rail

Train service: One scheduled train running on one day, from its origin to its destination. A train market asks about one service and its arrival at one station.
Headcode: The four-character code that identifies a train service in Great Britain, such as 1B56. It repeats from day to day, so a market also names the date.
Timetabled arrival: The arrival time a train is booked to reach a station in the working timetable. A train market measures delay against it.
Calling point: A station where a train is scheduled to stop to let passengers on or off.
Train operator: The company that runs a train service. Its punctuality is usually reported as the share of services arriving on time.
Part-cancellation: When a train runs only part of its scheduled route, for example terminating early. Each market’s terms say which outcome such a service counts as.
Rail running record: The official record of how a scheduled rail service actually ran — its recorded arrival time at each station, or the fact that it was cancelled. Rail markets settle against this record.
Rail punctuality: The share of train services that arrive on time. GADUIN train markets count a service as delayed from 5 minutes late.

Shipping

Voyage: One ship’s passage from one port to the next. A voyage market asks whether the vessel reaches its destination port on time, late, or not at all.
ETA (estimated time of arrival): When a ship is expected to reach port. A voyage market fixes the estimate it measures against when it opens, because a ship’s own estimate changes during the voyage.
Port call: A ship’s visit to a port, from arrival to departure, to load, unload or refuel.
Anchorage queue: Ships waiting at anchor outside a port or canal for a berth or a transit slot. A growing queue is an early sign of congestion.
Port congestion: When more ships arrive than a port can handle, so vessels wait at anchor and cargo moves late.
Transit: One ship passing through a canal or strait. Weekly chokepoint markets count transits over a fixed period.
Maritime chokepoint: A narrow, heavily used shipping passage — such as the Suez or Panama canals, the Strait of Hormuz or Bab-el-Mandeb — where congestion or closure can disrupt global trade.
Throughput: The volume of traffic that clears a port or chokepoint over a period of time. Falling throughput is a direct signal of congestion or disruption.
Ships through key waterways: A day-by-day count of ships passing a key waterway, updated weekly. It can differ from a canal authority’s tally and is not a live ship tracker or an official closure notice. A weekly market settles against the published count specified in its rules after the week ends.
Vessel position broadcast: The signal a ship’s transponder sends with its identity, position and course. It is how a vessel’s position is known at sea.
Supply-chain disruption: Any interruption to the normal flow of goods and transport — a delayed flight, a cancelled train, a congested port or a blocked shipping chokepoint — that ripples into schedules, costs and inventory.

Account and funding

USDT: A dollar-pegged stablecoin. GADUIN balances, trades and payouts are in USDT, one unit to one dollar.
ERC-20: The token standard on the Ethereum network. GADUIN accepts native USDT (ERC-20) on Ethereum only; USDT sent on another network, or wrapped or bridged versions, will not credit your balance.
Deposit: Sending USDT (ERC-20) to your GADUIN deposit address. It lands in your balance once the network confirms the transfer. GADUIN charges no deposit fee.
Deposit address: The Ethereum address shown under Account → Transactions → Deposit. Send only USDT (ERC-20) to it.
Withdrawal: Sending USDT from your balance to a saved address of your own. Each withdrawal carries a 5% commission, taken from the amount withdrawn; the form shows what you will receive before you confirm.
Network fee (gas): What the Ethereum network charges to process a transfer. You pay it when you send a deposit; GADUIN pays it on withdrawals.
Zero trading fees: GADUIN charges no fee to place a trade. The price you pay for a contract is the market price, with no trading commission added on top. Deposits are free as well; withdrawals carry a 5% commission, taken from the amount withdrawn.
Balance: The USDT in your account that is not tied up in open positions. Trades are paid from it and payouts and refunds are credited to it.
Two-factor authentication: A second sign-in step using a code from an authenticator app, switched on under Account → Info. Ten single-use backup codes cover a lost device.
Restricted jurisdictions: Places whose residents cannot use GADUIN. The service is not available to US persons or to residents of restricted jurisdictions; the Terms list the conditions.