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Glossary
Plain-language definitions of the terms used across GADUIN — the prediction market for supply-chain disruption. Each entry is a short, standalone definition you can quote.
Where useful, terms point to the fuller explainers in Learn.
Event contract
A yes/no instrument on the outcome of a real-world event that pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. Its price between those values is the market-implied probability of the event.
Prediction market
A marketplace where participants trade contracts on future events, so the price of a contract reflects the crowd's collective, money-backed estimate of how likely an outcome is.
Settlement
The process of resolving a market once its event has happened: winning contracts pay out $1 each and losing contracts pay $0. On GADUIN, settlement is automatic.
Official-data settlement
Resolving a market from official data rather than an operator's judgement. The outcome is read from the data and applied to the market's fixed terms, so nobody at the venue decides who is paid.
Supply-chain disruption
Any interruption to the normal flow of goods and transport — a delayed flight, a cancelled train, a congested port, or a blocked shipping chokepoint — that ripples into schedules, costs, and inventory.
Maritime chokepoint
A narrow, heavily used shipping passage — such as the Suez or Panama canals, the Strait of Hormuz, or Bab-el-Mandeb — where congestion or closure can disrupt global trade.
Throughput
The volume of traffic that clears a port or chokepoint over a period of time. Falling throughput is a direct signal of congestion or disruption.
ADS-B
Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast: the transponder standard by which aircraft continuously broadcast their position and identity. It is how an aircraft's position is known while it is in flight.
AIS
Automatic Identification System: the maritime transponder standard by which vessels broadcast their position and course. It is how a vessel's position is known at sea.
Chokepoint throughput data
The official counts of how much traffic clears a port or chokepoint over a period. These counts publish on a lag of a few days, which is why throughput markets settle after their window closes rather than in real time.
Rail running record
The official record of how a scheduled rail service actually ran — its recorded arrival time at each station, or the fact that it was cancelled. Rail markets settle against this record.
Delay threshold
The number of minutes past the scheduled time at which an arrival counts as delayed for a given market. A contract settles as delayed only once the recorded arrival passes this fixed threshold.
Cancellation
When a scheduled service does not run at all. Markets typically treat a cancellation as a distinct settled outcome, defined in the market's resolution rule.
Settlement terms
The delay threshold a market uses and the scheduled time that threshold is measured against. Both are fixed when the market opens and cannot change afterwards, so every trade is made against the same rule and settlement applies exactly those terms.
Zero fees
GADUIN charges no fee to place a trade. The price you pay for a contract is the market price, with no trading commission added on top.
How prices are set
Prices on GADUIN are set by market makers, not by a house setting odds. A market maker quotes each outcome's price — its live estimate of the probability — and the price moves as people trade, so there is always a live price to trade against.
Price impact
The way a large order moves the price as it fills. Because buying an outcome pushes its price up, a very large order fills at a progressively higher average price, while small trades have negligible impact.