Bab el-Mandeb Strait

The most recent published day, Sep 6, 2026, counted 23 transits. Across the 90 days on record the count has run between 14 and 46 a day. Traffic over the last 7 days is -3% against the 7 days before.

Everything above counts what already happened. These are the only figures on this page about what happens next, and nobody wrote them — the market did. Each is the price of a contract on this passage's published weekly transit count, and it moves while the market is open.

• Will the published transit figure for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be at least 218 in the week of 7 September – 13 September? The weekly figure is published a few days after the week ends.

  Closes Sep 13, 2026, 11:59 PMLast moved Sep 13, 2026, 4:36 PM

  Chance

  50%

  Yes
• Will the published transit figure for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait be at least 208 in the week of 14 September – 20 September? The weekly figure is published a few days after the week ends.

  Closes Sep 20, 2026, 11:59 PMLast moved Sep 13, 2026, 4:10 PM

  Chance

  50%

  Yes

A price is what people here are paying to take that side. It is not a forecast and not an official figure. The count for a week is published a few days after the week ends, so these markets settle after their window closes.

Reporting that names this passage, newest first.

1. Red Sea nations watch as Houthis seize Bab al-Mandeb strait

   Al Jazeera·Sep 13, 2026·

2. Yemen’s Houthis Reach Strategic Island at Mouth of Vital Shipping Lane

   gCaptain·Sep 11, 2026·