Chokepoint monitor
Is the Tsugaru Strait open?
Yes, below normal
48 ships crossed the Tsugaru Strait on Nov 8, 2026. Normal is about 51 a day.
Under 85% of normal for 2 weeks in a row, since the week of Oct 26, 2026.
New counts are published weekly
Trade the weekly count
317+ ships through the Tsugaru Strait (Nov 9 – Nov 15)?About this map
- Tanker
- Cargo ship
- Passenger ship
- Fishing boat
- Other ship
Ships whose transponder was picked up in the last 30 minutes. This is not a transit count: ships with the transponder off or out of range don’t appear.
Key numbers
- Transits a day
- 37.1
- Average, 7 days to Nov 8, 2026
- Share of normal
- 73%
- Normal is 51 a day
- Week on week
- +24%
- Vs the previous 7 days
Traffic
Ships counted each day, compared with normal.
Conditions
Ships counted on Nov 8, 2026: 48. Range over 400 days: 4 to 82 a day. Last 7 days vs the 7 before: +24%.
Ships counted a day
| Date | Transits |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | 51 |
| 2026-10-11 | 58 |
| 2026-10-12 | 36 |
| 2026-10-13 | 46 |
| 2026-10-14 | 25 |
| 2026-10-15 | 45 |
| 2026-10-16 | 52 |
| 2026-10-17 | 51 |
| 2026-10-18 | 53 |
| 2026-10-19 | 41 |
| 2026-10-20 | 48 |
| 2026-10-21 | 27 |
| 2026-10-22 | 38 |
| 2026-10-23 | 66 |
| 2026-10-24 | 48 |
| 2026-10-25 | 58 |
| 2026-10-26 | 27 |
| 2026-10-27 | 26 |
| 2026-10-28 | 22 |
| 2026-10-29 | 37 |
| 2026-10-30 | 42 |
| 2026-10-31 | 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | 37 |
| 2026-11-02 | 56 |
| 2026-11-03 | 43 |
| 2026-11-04 | 56 |
| 2026-11-05 | 42 |
| 2026-11-06 | 11 |
| 2026-11-07 | 4 |
| 2026-11-08 | 48 |
Daily transits from 2025-10-05 to 2026-11-08: 4 to 82 a day.
Geography
- Narrowest width
- 18km
- Open water at the tightest point
- Shore to shore
- 34km
- Where ships are counted
- Corridor
- 40km
- Length
- Counted at
- 41°20′N 140°21′E
We measure these distances from the coastline, so they can differ from an atlas. Narrowest width is the widest lane that fits along the whole corridor, so it's smaller than the headland-to-headland width.
Markets
Markets on the weekly ship count.
Open markets
Chance is based on the current price. It may not match a completed trade.
- 317+ ships through the Tsugaru Strait (Nov 9 – Nov 15)?
Closes Nov 15, 2026, 11:59 PM
Chance50%Yes - 284+ ships through the Tsugaru Strait (Nov 16 – Nov 22)?
Closes Nov 22, 2026, 11:59 PM
Chance51%Yes
The weekly count can come out after trading closes. Each market settles on its fixed rules.
Events
News and incidents.
No recent news.
Questions and answers
- Is the Tsugaru Strait open?
- Yes, below normal. 48 ships crossed the Tsugaru Strait on Nov 8, 2026. Normal is about 51 a day.
- How many ships cross the Tsugaru Strait each day?
- 48 ships on Nov 8, 2026, the latest day counted. The 7-day average is 37.1 a day.
- How does traffic at the Tsugaru Strait compare with normal?
- The last 7 days averaged 37.1 ships a day, 73% of the normal 51. That's +24% vs the 7 days before.
- When were these figures last updated?
- The latest count is for Nov 8, 2026. New counts are published once a week, a couple of days after each week ends, so the latest day can be up to ten days old.
- How long has traffic at the Tsugaru Strait been below normal?
- Under 85% of normal for 2 weeks in a row, since the week of Oct 26, 2026.
- What does the market say about the Tsugaru Strait?
- “317+ ships through the Tsugaru Strait (Nov 9 – Nov 15)?” Yes is at 50¢, a 50% chance. Trading closes Nov 15, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC.