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What is an event contract?
Published July 9, 2026 · last updated July 13, 2026
An event contract is a yes/no instrument on the outcome of a real-world event. It pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price between those two values — say $0.62 — reads directly as the market-implied probability of the event, in this case 62%.
Event contracts turn a question about the world into something you can trade. On GADUIN the question is always about supply-chain disruption: will this flight arrive on time, will this train be cancelled, will this vessel clear the chokepoint on schedule. This guide explains how a contract pays out, how its price is set, how to read the two sides of a market, what the risks are, and how an event contract differs from insurance, a forecast, or a sportsbook.
How does an event contract pay out?
Because a contract is worth exactly $1 or $0 at the end, its price along the way is the crowd’s live estimate of how likely the outcome is. A contract at 62% costs about $0.62; if you buy it and the event happens, you receive $1 — a 38-cent profit per contract — and if it does not, you receive nothing. As new information arrives, prices move, and the implied probability moves with them. You can buy the side you think is under-priced and sell any time before the market closes.
How are the prices set?
Prices are set by market makers, not by a house setting odds. A market maker quotes a price for each outcome — its live estimate of how likely it is — and the price moves as people trade: buying an outcome nudges its price up and buying the other side nudges it down. There is always a live price to trade against — you never have to wait for someone to take the other side. Very large orders fill at a progressively higher average price, so size moves the price as you buy. Trades start at a $1 minimum, and GADUIN adds no commission on top of the market price.
What do the YES and NO sides mean?
Every market has a YES and a NO side whose prices sum to about $1. Buying NO is simply taking the other side of the question — a position that pays if a delay does not happen, for example. Because you can trade either side and exit before settlement, an event contract behaves more like a position you manage than a ticket you buy and hold to the end.
A worked example
Suppose a market on a transatlantic flight is trading at 20% for delayed. A storm builds over the destination and traders push it to 60% before the plane has landed. If the flight arrives past its delay threshold, everyone holding the delayed side is paid $1 per contract, so someone who bought at 20% turns roughly $0.20 into $1. If it lands on time, the delayed side pays $0 and the on-time holders are paid $1 instead. Either way, the winning side is decided by the recorded arrival — not by anyone at GADUIN.
What can you trade an event contract on?
On GADUIN, every event contract is about supply-chain disruption you can measure: whether a specific flight arrives on time, is delayed past a set threshold, or is cancelled; whether a train runs or is cancelled; whether a vessel clears a chokepoint on schedule; or how much traffic moves through a port or strait. Each is a yes/no question with a public, checkable answer — which is what lets the contract settle without anyone’s judgement.
Is an event contract insurance or a forecast?
GADUIN is a marketplace where prices are set by what participants will pay — not a forecasting service that hands you a prediction, and not an insurer that underwrites a policy. Nobody quotes you fixed odds and takes the other side as the house; you trade at a live market price, and every market settles from official data rather than a referee's call. That distinction is what makes the price meaningful and the settlement verifiable.
How is this different from a sportsbook?
A sportsbook quotes fixed odds and acts as your counterparty — when you win, the book loses. GADUIN is an exchange: prices are set by what other participants are willing to pay for an outcome, and every market settles from official data rather than a referee’s call. The house never takes the other side of your trade or profits when you lose.
What are the risks?
Trading event contracts carries risk — you can lose the full amount you stake if the outcome goes against you, and nothing on GADUIN is investment advice. Because a losing contract settles at $0, a position can fall to zero. Only trade what you can afford to lose, and review your local laws before taking part.
How do event contracts settle?
Each market's terms are fixed when it opens — the service it refers to, the delay threshold, and the scheduled time that threshold is measured against — and the market resolves automatically once the event has happened, from official data read against those terms. Winning contracts pay $1 and losing contracts pay $0, straight into your balance. See how settlement works, or browse the glossary for the terms.
Event contracts, in brief
- What does a price of 62% mean?
- It means the market implies a 62% chance the outcome happens. A YES contract costs about $0.62; if the event happens it pays $1, and if it does not it pays $0.
- Can I sell before the event happens?
- Yes. You can buy either side and sell any time before the market closes, so an event contract behaves more like a position you manage than a ticket you hold to the end.
- Is there a minimum trade?
- Trades must be at least $1. There is no fixed maximum, but very large orders fill at a progressively higher average price, so the bigger the order the more the price moves as you buy.
- Do I pay a fee to trade?
- No. GADUIN charges no trading commission — the price you pay for a contract is the market price, with nothing added on top.
Keep exploring
For the big picture, start at the supply-chain disruption category hub. For account, deposit, and settlement specifics, the FAQ goes deeper.