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The prediction market for flight, train and shipping delays

Will at least 35 ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz in the week of Sep 21 – Sep 27?

Strait of Hormuz

A week of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, counted as one number. The market gives that a 49% chance; the count is published a few days after the week ends and settles it.

$19,547 traded

Will HGH see at least 410 arrivals on Sep 27, 2026, airport local time?

Today's arrivals at Hangzhou Xiaoshan are running against a 410 line, with 322 reported so far.

$301 traded

Will BREMERHAVEN EXPRESS into Paranagua arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Tuesday 27 October?

BREMERHAVEN EXPRESS is under way for Paranagua. The market gives an on-time arrival a 95% chance, settled on the port's own arrival record.

$8,838 tradedArrives Tue, Oct 27, 3:00 AM UTC

Will the 22:19 from Leeds to Manchester Victoria arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 27?

LeedsManchester Victoria22:19 1J05 NT

The market gives an on-time arrival at Manchester Victoria a 50% chance, settled on the operator's own recorded arrival.

$703 tradedDeparts Sun, Sep 27, 10:19 PM GMT+1
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How GADUIN prediction markets work

  1. Choose a listed event

    Browse flight, train or shipping markets. Check the service, date and outcomes on the market page.

  2. Read the rules and price

    Review the outcome definitions, trading close and settlement rules. Weigh the price before you trade — the full amount you put in is at risk.

  3. Follow the outcome

    The contract settles under the market’s published rules. A contract on the outcome that happens pays $1; every other contract pays $0.

New to event contracts? See what a supply-chain disruption market is and how public-data settlement works.

Published market rules and platform terms govern trading and settlement. Trading involves risk. Not available to US persons.