Chokepoint monitor
Taiwan Strait
Open5 days ago
The stakes
Will at least 1734 ships pass through the Taiwan Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?50%Closes Aug 30, 2026
Transits251a day+1% against normalNormal 248 a day
· delayed by 4 days
Situation report
Traffic is normal: 269.9 transits a day over the last 7 days, against a trailing median of 248 — 109% of normal. Transits last ran at 251 a day against a normal 248, up 1%. The market on “Will at least 1734 ships pass through the Taiwan Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?” is pricing 50%.
At sea
Transits over time
- Transits
- Normal
| Date | Transits |
|---|---|
| Aug 16 | 251 |
| Aug 15 | 233 |
| Aug 14 | 263 |
| Aug 13 | 286 |
| Aug 12 | 291 |
| Aug 11 | 199 |
| Aug 10 | 366 |
| Aug 9 | 232 |
| Aug 8 | 35 |
| Aug 7 | 204 |
| Aug 6 | 282 |
| Aug 5 | 231 |
| Aug 4 | 253 |
| Aug 3 | 220 |
| Aug 2 | 238 |
| Aug 1 | 258 |
| Jul 31 | 230 |
| Jul 30 | 228 |
| Jul 29 | 231 |
| Jul 28 | 239 |
| Jul 27 | 313 |
| Jul 26 | 202 |
| Jul 25 | 121 |
| Jul 24 | 200 |
| Jul 23 | 261 |
| Jul 22 | 269 |
| Jul 21 | 249 |
| Jul 20 | 251 |
| Jul 19 | 234 |
| Jul 18 | 238 |
| Jul 17 | 220 |
| Jul 16 | 252 |
| Jul 15 | 286 |
| Jul 14 | 281 |
| Jul 13 | 221 |
| Jul 12 | 401 |
| Jul 11 | 59 |
| Jul 10 | 28 |
| Jul 9 | 176 |
| Jul 8 | 277 |
| Jul 7 | 271 |
| Jul 6 | 242 |
| Jul 5 | 250 |
| Jul 4 | 230 |
| Jul 3 | 258 |
| Jul 2 | 234 |
| Jul 1 | 241 |
| Jun 30 | 259 |
| Jun 29 | 264 |
| Jun 28 | 247 |
| Jun 27 | 257 |
| Jun 26 | 274 |
| Jun 25 | 244 |
| Jun 24 | 313 |
| Jun 23 | 325 |
| Jun 22 | 258 |
| Jun 21 | 248 |
| Jun 20 | 237 |
| Jun 19 | 231 |
| Jun 18 | 270 |
| Jun 17 | 248 |
| Jun 16 | 246 |
| Jun 15 | 232 |
| Jun 14 | 233 |
| Jun 13 | 243 |
| Jun 12 | 240 |
| Jun 11 | 244 |
| Jun 10 | 255 |
| Jun 9 | 266 |
| Jun 8 | 222 |
| Jun 7 | 237 |
| Jun 6 | 267 |
| Jun 5 | 263 |
| Jun 4 | 272 |
| Jun 3 | 255 |
| Jun 2 | 273 |
| Jun 1 | 319 |
| May 31 | 306 |
| May 30 | 259 |
| May 29 | 250 |
| May 28 | 245 |
| May 27 | 229 |
| May 26 | 252 |
| May 25 | 215 |
| May 24 | 235 |
| May 23 | 217 |
| May 22 | 234 |
| May 21 | 225 |
| May 20 | 253 |
| May 19 | 237 |
· delayed by 4 days
Markets
What people are backing with money on this passage.
| Question | Implied | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| Will at least 1734 ships pass through the Taiwan Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August? | 50% | Aug 30, 2026 |
Volume is not reporting for these markets.
Data health
2 of 7 feeds reportingOldest figure on this page: 5 days ago- Pricesnot reporting
- Transits · delayed by 4 days
- Transits by vessel typenot reporting
- Vessels holdingnot reporting
- Briefnot reporting
- Eventsnot reporting
- Markets