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Chokepoint monitor

Taiwan Strait

Open5 days ago

The stakes

Will at least 1734 ships pass through the Taiwan Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?50%Closes Aug 30, 2026

Transits251a day+1% against normalNormal 248 a day

· delayed by 4 days

Situation report

Traffic is normal: 269.9 transits a day over the last 7 days, against a trailing median of 248 — 109% of normal. Transits last ran at 251 a day against a normal 248, up 1%. The market on “Will at least 1734 ships pass through the Taiwan Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?” is pricing 50%.

At sea

Transits over time

Daily transits from May 19 to Aug 16, running between 0 and 401 a day.
  • Transits
  • Normal
Daily transits through Taiwan Strait
DateTransits
Aug 16251
Aug 15233
Aug 14263
Aug 13286
Aug 12291
Aug 11199
Aug 10366
Aug 9232
Aug 835
Aug 7204
Aug 6282
Aug 5231
Aug 4253
Aug 3220
Aug 2238
Aug 1258
Jul 31230
Jul 30228
Jul 29231
Jul 28239
Jul 27313
Jul 26202
Jul 25121
Jul 24200
Jul 23261
Jul 22269
Jul 21249
Jul 20251
Jul 19234
Jul 18238
Jul 17220
Jul 16252
Jul 15286
Jul 14281
Jul 13221
Jul 12401
Jul 1159
Jul 1028
Jul 9176
Jul 8277
Jul 7271
Jul 6242
Jul 5250
Jul 4230
Jul 3258
Jul 2234
Jul 1241
Jun 30259
Jun 29264
Jun 28247
Jun 27257
Jun 26274
Jun 25244
Jun 24313
Jun 23325
Jun 22258
Jun 21248
Jun 20237
Jun 19231
Jun 18270
Jun 17248
Jun 16246
Jun 15232
Jun 14233
Jun 13243
Jun 12240
Jun 11244
Jun 10255
Jun 9266
Jun 8222
Jun 7237
Jun 6267
Jun 5263
Jun 4272
Jun 3255
Jun 2273
Jun 1319
May 31306
May 30259
May 29250
May 28245
May 27229
May 26252
May 25215
May 24235
May 23217
May 22234
May 21225
May 20253
May 19237

· delayed by 4 days

Markets

What people are backing with money on this passage.

Prediction markets on Taiwan Strait
QuestionImpliedCloses
Will at least 1734 ships pass through the Taiwan Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?50%Aug 30, 2026

Volume is not reporting for these markets.

Data health

2 of 7 feeds reportingOldest figure on this page: 5 days ago
  • Pricesnot reporting
  • Transits · delayed by 4 days
  • Transits by vessel typenot reporting
  • Vessels holdingnot reporting
  • Briefnot reporting
  • Eventsnot reporting
  • Markets