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Chokepoint monitor

Magellan Strait

Open5 days ago

The stakes

Will at least 36 ships pass through the Magellan Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?49%Closes Aug 30, 2026

Transits7a day+40% against normalNormal 5 a day

· delayed by 4 days

Situation report

Traffic is normal: 6.3 transits a day over the last 7 days, against a trailing median of 5 — 126% of normal. Transits last ran at 7 a day against a normal 5, up 40%. The market on “Will at least 36 ships pass through the Magellan Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?” is pricing 49%.

At sea

Transits over time

Daily transits from May 19 to Aug 16, running between 0 and 10 a day.
  • Transits
  • Normal
Daily transits through Magellan Strait
DateTransits
Aug 167
Aug 155
Aug 149
Aug 138
Aug 126
Aug 113
Aug 106
Aug 93
Aug 82
Aug 76
Aug 63
Aug 57
Aug 45
Aug 310
Aug 27
Aug 14
Jul 316
Jul 305
Jul 295
Jul 285
Jul 273
Jul 266
Jul 253
Jul 246
Jul 234
Jul 223
Jul 213
Jul 204
Jul 196
Jul 184
Jul 175
Jul 167
Jul 155
Jul 149
Jul 132
Jul 122
Jul 115
Jul 106
Jul 96
Jul 89
Jul 77
Jul 65
Jul 56
Jul 46
Jul 34
Jul 27
Jul 18
Jun 304
Jun 293
Jun 286
Jun 275
Jun 266
Jun 253
Jun 247
Jun 234
Jun 221
Jun 216
Jun 202
Jun 197
Jun 183
Jun 178
Jun 168
Jun 155
Jun 144
Jun 136
Jun 124
Jun 113
Jun 106
Jun 95
Jun 84
Jun 72
Jun 67
Jun 53
Jun 42
Jun 34
Jun 25
Jun 14
May 314
May 305
May 295
May 286
May 271
May 263
May 254
May 242
May 234
May 225
May 215
May 209
May 197

· delayed by 4 days

Markets

What people are backing with money on this passage.

Prediction markets on Magellan Strait
QuestionImpliedCloses
Will at least 36 ships pass through the Magellan Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?49%Aug 30, 2026

Volume is not reporting for these markets.

Data health

2 of 7 feeds reportingOldest figure on this page: 5 days ago
  • Pricesnot reporting
  • Transits · delayed by 4 days
  • Transits by vessel typenot reporting
  • Vessels holdingnot reporting
  • Briefnot reporting
  • Eventsnot reporting
  • Markets