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Chokepoint monitor

Kerch Strait

Closed5 days ago

The stakes

Will at least 43 ships pass through the Kerch Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?49%Closes Aug 30, 2026

Transits0a day-100% against normalNormal 4 a day

· delayed by 4 days

Situation report

Traffic has all but stopped: 0.3 transits a day over the last 7 days, against a trailing median of 4 — 7% of normal. Transits last ran at 0 a day against a normal 4, down 100%. The market on “Will at least 43 ships pass through the Kerch Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?” is pricing 49%.

At sea

Transits over time

Daily transits from May 19 to Aug 16, running between 0 and 25 a day.
  • Transits
  • Normal
Daily transits through Kerch Strait
DateTransits
Aug 160
Aug 150
Aug 141
Aug 130
Aug 120
Aug 110
Aug 101
Aug 90
Aug 80
Aug 70
Aug 60
Aug 51
Aug 40
Aug 30
Aug 20
Aug 11
Jul 311
Jul 300
Jul 290
Jul 283
Jul 271
Jul 260
Jul 251
Jul 243
Jul 230
Jul 220
Jul 212
Jul 202
Jul 192
Jul 180
Jul 170
Jul 161
Jul 151
Jul 143
Jul 134
Jul 126
Jul 112
Jul 102
Jul 98
Jul 85
Jul 74
Jul 61
Jul 510
Jul 43
Jul 36
Jul 27
Jul 18
Jun 3013
Jun 2911
Jun 289
Jun 276
Jun 2612
Jun 2514
Jun 2411
Jun 2314
Jun 2211
Jun 2111
Jun 2014
Jun 1923
Jun 185
Jun 1712
Jun 169
Jun 156
Jun 1411
Jun 137
Jun 126
Jun 115
Jun 1010
Jun 913
Jun 87
Jun 712
Jun 612
Jun 519
Jun 425
Jun 318
Jun 23
Jun 18
May 316
May 304
May 293
May 288
May 279
May 2616
May 2519
May 2410
May 237
May 2213
May 2116
May 2016
May 1922

· delayed by 4 days

Markets

What people are backing with money on this passage.

Prediction markets on Kerch Strait
QuestionImpliedCloses
Will at least 43 ships pass through the Kerch Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?49%Aug 30, 2026

Volume is not reporting for these markets.

Data health

2 of 7 feeds reportingOldest figure on this page: 5 days ago
  • Pricesnot reporting
  • Transits · delayed by 4 days
  • Transits by vessel typenot reporting
  • Vessels holdingnot reporting
  • Briefnot reporting
  • Eventsnot reporting
  • Markets