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Chokepoint monitor

Gibraltar Strait

Open5 days ago

The stakes

Will at least 920 ships pass through the Gibraltar Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?50%Closes Aug 30, 2026

Transits150a day+14% against normalNormal 132 a day

· delayed by 4 days

Situation report

Traffic is normal: 130.7 transits a day over the last 7 days, against a trailing median of 132 — 99% of normal. Transits last ran at 150 a day against a normal 132, up 14%. The market on “Will at least 920 ships pass through the Gibraltar Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?” is pricing 50%.

At sea

Transits over time

Daily transits from May 19 to Aug 16, running between 0 and 163 a day.
  • Transits
  • Normal
Daily transits through Gibraltar Strait
DateTransits
Aug 16150
Aug 15120
Aug 14124
Aug 13138
Aug 12136
Aug 11129
Aug 10118
Aug 9112
Aug 8143
Aug 7148
Aug 6128
Aug 5146
Aug 4133
Aug 3114
Aug 2125
Aug 1136
Jul 31126
Jul 30122
Jul 29118
Jul 28134
Jul 27145
Jul 26117
Jul 25136
Jul 24116
Jul 23129
Jul 22135
Jul 21135
Jul 20129
Jul 19119
Jul 18120
Jul 17128
Jul 16125
Jul 15121
Jul 14126
Jul 13133
Jul 12144
Jul 11111
Jul 10134
Jul 9120
Jul 8129
Jul 7132
Jul 6126
Jul 5131
Jul 4132
Jul 3128
Jul 2127
Jul 1134
Jun 30133
Jun 29140
Jun 28129
Jun 27140
Jun 26136
Jun 25116
Jun 24125
Jun 23133
Jun 22148
Jun 21124
Jun 20163
Jun 19132
Jun 18140
Jun 17123
Jun 16137
Jun 15141
Jun 14114
Jun 13163
Jun 12122
Jun 11142
Jun 10131
Jun 9124
Jun 8141
Jun 7120
Jun 6142
Jun 5112
Jun 4134
Jun 3111
Jun 2136
Jun 1122
May 31151
May 30138
May 29133
May 28146
May 27125
May 26144
May 25143
May 24134
May 23134
May 22143
May 21120
May 20147
May 19160

· delayed by 4 days

Markets

What people are backing with money on this passage.

Prediction markets on Gibraltar Strait
QuestionImpliedCloses
Will at least 920 ships pass through the Gibraltar Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August?50%Aug 30, 2026

Volume is not reporting for these markets.

Data health

2 of 7 feeds reportingOldest figure on this page: 5 days ago
  • Pricesnot reporting
  • Transits · delayed by 4 days
  • Transits by vessel typenot reporting
  • Vessels holdingnot reporting
  • Briefnot reporting
  • Eventsnot reporting
  • Markets