Chokepoint monitor
Bosporus Strait
Elevated risk5 days ago
The stakes
Will at least 558 ships pass through the Bosporus Strait in the week of 17 August – 23 August?49%Closes Aug 23, 2026
Transits37a day-51% against normalNormal 76 a day
· delayed by 4 days
Situation report
Traffic is below normal: 54.4 transits a day over the last 7 days, against a trailing median of 76 — 72% of normal. Transits last ran at 37 a day against a normal 76, down 51%. The market on “Will at least 558 ships pass through the Bosporus Strait in the week of 17 August – 23 August?” is pricing 49%.
At sea
Transits over time
- Transits
- Normal
| Date | Transits |
|---|---|
| Aug 16 | 37 |
| Aug 15 | 43 |
| Aug 14 | 51 |
| Aug 13 | 48 |
| Aug 12 | 76 |
| Aug 11 | 64 |
| Aug 10 | 62 |
| Aug 9 | 65 |
| Aug 8 | 57 |
| Aug 7 | 80 |
| Aug 6 | 58 |
| Aug 5 | 67 |
| Aug 4 | 56 |
| Aug 3 | 57 |
| Aug 2 | 65 |
| Aug 1 | 81 |
| Jul 31 | 60 |
| Jul 30 | 60 |
| Jul 29 | 58 |
| Jul 28 | 51 |
| Jul 27 | 81 |
| Jul 26 | 57 |
| Jul 25 | 58 |
| Jul 24 | 69 |
| Jul 23 | 60 |
| Jul 22 | 73 |
| Jul 21 | 65 |
| Jul 20 | 65 |
| Jul 19 | 63 |
| Jul 18 | 83 |
| Jul 17 | 90 |
| Jul 16 | 73 |
| Jul 15 | 55 |
| Jul 14 | 45 |
| Jul 13 | 94 |
| Jul 12 | 95 |
| Jul 11 | 81 |
| Jul 10 | 66 |
| Jul 9 | 87 |
| Jul 8 | 92 |
| Jul 7 | 84 |
| Jul 6 | 68 |
| Jul 5 | 87 |
| Jul 4 | 85 |
| Jul 3 | 87 |
| Jul 2 | 63 |
| Jul 1 | 62 |
| Jun 30 | 97 |
| Jun 29 | 86 |
| Jun 28 | 63 |
| Jun 27 | 81 |
| Jun 26 | 98 |
| Jun 25 | 86 |
| Jun 24 | 66 |
| Jun 23 | 79 |
| Jun 22 | 77 |
| Jun 21 | 77 |
| Jun 20 | 89 |
| Jun 19 | 99 |
| Jun 18 | 90 |
| Jun 17 | 55 |
| Jun 16 | 78 |
| Jun 15 | 77 |
| Jun 14 | 89 |
| Jun 13 | 88 |
| Jun 12 | 75 |
| Jun 11 | 71 |
| Jun 10 | 85 |
| Jun 9 | 100 |
| Jun 8 | 81 |
| Jun 7 | 71 |
| Jun 6 | 80 |
| Jun 5 | 77 |
| Jun 4 | 88 |
| Jun 3 | 71 |
| Jun 2 | 60 |
| Jun 1 | 88 |
| May 31 | 64 |
| May 30 | 87 |
| May 29 | 60 |
| May 28 | 82 |
| May 27 | 88 |
| May 26 | 95 |
| May 25 | 91 |
| May 24 | 85 |
| May 23 | 88 |
| May 22 | 81 |
| May 21 | 79 |
| May 20 | 99 |
| May 19 | 59 |
· delayed by 4 days
Markets
What people are backing with money on this passage.
| Question | Implied | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| Will at least 558 ships pass through the Bosporus Strait in the week of 17 August – 23 August? | 49% | Aug 23, 2026 |
| Will at least 543 ships pass through the Bosporus Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August? | 50% | Aug 30, 2026 |
Volume is not reporting for these markets.
Data health
2 of 7 feeds reportingOldest figure on this page: 5 days ago- Pricesnot reporting
- Transits · delayed by 4 days
- Transits by vessel typenot reporting
- Vessels holdingnot reporting
- Briefnot reporting
- Eventsnot reporting
- Markets