Chokepoint monitor
Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Open5 days ago
The stakes
Will at least 242 ships pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the week of 17 August – 23 August?50%Closes Aug 23, 2026
Transits36a day+9% against normalNormal 33 a day
· delayed by 4 days
Situation report
Traffic is normal: 29.3 transits a day over the last 7 days, against a trailing median of 33 — 89% of normal. Transits last ran at 36 a day against a normal 33, up 9%. The market on “Will at least 242 ships pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the week of 17 August – 23 August?” is pricing 50%.
At sea
Transits over time
- Transits
- Normal
| Date | Transits |
|---|---|
| Aug 16 | 36 |
| Aug 15 | 40 |
| Aug 14 | 31 |
| Aug 13 | 20 |
| Aug 12 | 25 |
| Aug 11 | 24 |
| Aug 10 | 29 |
| Aug 9 | 34 |
| Aug 8 | 25 |
| Aug 7 | 28 |
| Aug 6 | 31 |
| Aug 5 | 14 |
| Aug 4 | 27 |
| Aug 3 | 17 |
| Aug 2 | 30 |
| Aug 1 | 20 |
| Jul 31 | 27 |
| Jul 30 | 37 |
| Jul 29 | 31 |
| Jul 28 | 33 |
| Jul 27 | 32 |
| Jul 26 | 20 |
| Jul 25 | 22 |
| Jul 24 | 30 |
| Jul 23 | 34 |
| Jul 22 | 31 |
| Jul 21 | 25 |
| Jul 20 | 35 |
| Jul 19 | 33 |
| Jul 18 | 40 |
| Jul 17 | 46 |
| Jul 16 | 33 |
| Jul 15 | 40 |
| Jul 14 | 45 |
| Jul 13 | 44 |
| Jul 12 | 41 |
| Jul 11 | 44 |
| Jul 10 | 27 |
| Jul 9 | 28 |
| Jul 8 | 31 |
| Jul 7 | 27 |
| Jul 6 | 28 |
| Jul 5 | 34 |
| Jul 4 | 31 |
| Jul 3 | 31 |
| Jul 2 | 39 |
| Jul 1 | 31 |
| Jun 30 | 37 |
| Jun 29 | 35 |
| Jun 28 | 37 |
| Jun 27 | 32 |
| Jun 26 | 36 |
| Jun 25 | 46 |
| Jun 24 | 36 |
| Jun 23 | 30 |
| Jun 22 | 29 |
| Jun 21 | 37 |
| Jun 20 | 39 |
| Jun 19 | 39 |
| Jun 18 | 40 |
| Jun 17 | 42 |
| Jun 16 | 25 |
| Jun 15 | 35 |
| Jun 14 | 33 |
| Jun 13 | 37 |
| Jun 12 | 41 |
| Jun 11 | 40 |
| Jun 10 | 32 |
| Jun 9 | 38 |
| Jun 8 | 31 |
| Jun 7 | 37 |
| Jun 6 | 39 |
| Jun 5 | 25 |
| Jun 4 | 45 |
| Jun 3 | 29 |
| Jun 2 | 36 |
| Jun 1 | 38 |
| May 31 | 30 |
| May 30 | 31 |
| May 29 | 28 |
| May 28 | 35 |
| May 27 | 38 |
| May 26 | 22 |
| May 25 | 35 |
| May 24 | 43 |
| May 23 | 38 |
| May 22 | 36 |
| May 21 | 33 |
| May 20 | 33 |
| May 19 | 40 |
· delayed by 4 days
Markets
What people are backing with money on this passage.
| Question | Implied | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| Will at least 242 ships pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the week of 17 August – 23 August? | 50% | Aug 23, 2026 |
| Will at least 232 ships pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the week of 24 August – 30 August? | 51% | Aug 30, 2026 |
Volume is not reporting for these markets.
Data health
2 of 7 feeds reportingOldest figure on this page: 5 days ago- Pricesnot reporting
- Transits · delayed by 4 days
- Transits by vessel typenot reporting
- Vessels holdingnot reporting
- Briefnot reporting
- Eventsnot reporting
- Markets