Editorial standards

Who writes this

Posts on this blog are published by GADUIN Research, the in-house desk that writes about how GADUIN's markets are built, priced and settled. GADUIN Research is a function, not a person: it is a desk byline, and we use it deliberately rather than invent a personal one.

The publisher of record is Gaduin Inc., the company that operates the platform. A post carries a personal byline only when a named individual actually wrote it. Where a post has been checked by a named person, that person's name and the date they recorded their review appear on the post itself and in its structured data. Where no name appears, nobody has recorded a review of that post — we would rather show the gap than fill it with a name that means nothing.

We do not claim qualifications, certifications or affiliations for the desk or for any reviewer. If you see a credential attached to a name here, it is one we can evidence.

What we write about — and what this is not

The subject matter is narrow on purpose: scheduled transport (flights, rail, shipping), the public data that records what those services actually did, and the mechanics of the event contracts GADUIN lists against them. Some posts touch adjacent regulatory and tax topics because traders ask about them.

Nothing on this blog is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Trading event contracts carries risk: a losing contract settles at $0, so a position can fall to zero and you can lose the full amount you stake. Rules on event contracts, passenger compensation and the tax treatment of trading gains differ by country and change over time, and a post describing them is a starting point for your own research, not a substitute for professional advice or for the primary source. GADUIN is operated from Panama and is not registered with or licensed by any securities or derivatives regulator; the service is not available to US persons or to residents of restricted jurisdictions.

How we source claims

Every factual claim in a post comes from one of three places, in this order of preference.

1. The platform's own record. Market terms, prices, trades, settlement outcomes and payouts are first-hand: they are rows in GADUIN's own database and are visible on the market page. When a post says how a specific market resolved, that is where it comes from.
2. The official operational data that settles markets. Arrival and cancellation records for flights, trains and voyages, and chokepoint transit counts, come from the same feeds the settlement engine reads — the operational record that carriers, railways, ports and maritime authorities work from themselves. We describe these by what they are rather than by vendor name, for the same reason the product does: naming a supplier would be a claim the platform does not surface anywhere a reader could check. What the data covers, and its limits, are set out on Public data sources.
3. Primary published documents. Regulations, regulator guidance, carrier conditions of carriage, statutory instruments and official statistics are linked directly in the post wherever they are quoted. We link the source document, not a summary of it. Where a rule is contested or has changed recently, the post says so.

We do not use unattributed aggregate statistics, and we do not present a modelled or estimated figure as a measurement. Where a number is derived — an average, a rate, a backtest over past markets — the post says what it was computed from and over what period.

How settlement claims are grounded

Most posts here eventually make a claim about how a market resolves. Those claims are checked against how the settlement engine actually behaves, not against how it is marketed. The parts worth knowing when you read one:

• Terms are fixed when the market opens. The data source, the query and the resolution rule are bound at activation, shown on the market page, and cannot be amended afterwards — by a trader or by GADUIN.
• Rail outcomes need two witnesses. A rail market settles only when two independent official records agree on the arrival or the cancellation. If they contradict each other past the corroboration deadline, the market is unresolvable rather than settled on the more convenient one.
• Some markets are never created. A flight market is only opened when the destination airport is covered by live arrival reporting. Without that, the market could never be settled, so it is dropped rather than listed.
• Chokepoint data publishes on a lag. Throughput counts arrive some days after the window they describe, which is why a chokepoint market settles after its window closes rather than at the close.
• "No answer" and "no outcome" are different states. A source that is healthy and asserts no outcome will ever exist can trigger an automatic refund. A source that simply could not answer never can — that case is routed to a person, because a source that cannot answer cannot tell the two apart.
• Ambiguity is resolved by a person, against the fixed terms. A market that cannot be read unambiguously moves to a disputed state and is resolved by a human reviewer within 24 hours, applying the market's rule rather than overriding it. Where no outcome can be established at all, the market is voided and every stake refunded in full.

The full mechanism is on How settlement works. If a post and that page disagree, the Learn page and the market's own terms win, and the post is wrong — please tell us.

Dates, updates and review

Every post shows the date it was published. It shows a last updated date only when the post has actually been edited since publication — a post that has never been changed carries no update date at all, rather than one copied from its publication date. The same rule governs the datePublished and dateModified fields in each post's structured data.

Review is recorded separately from editing. When a named person checks a post, their name and the date of that check are stored against the post and shown on it. That field is empty on a post nobody has reviewed, and it stays empty until a review actually happens. We do not backfill it.

Posts about rules and regulations age faster than posts about mechanics. Where a post describes a threshold, an entitlement or a tax treatment, read the date on it and check the primary source it links before relying on it.

Corrections

If something here is wrong, tell us at [email protected] and say which post and which claim. We would rather hear about it from you than leave it standing.

A disputed market settlement is a separate process, not an editorial one. If you believe a market was settled incorrectly, the Terms of Service set out the route: written notice to [email protected] within seven calendar days of settlement with your supporting evidence, and a response within fifteen business days. Where a market is found to have been settled incorrectly, the settlement is reversed and the market re-resolved, restoring balances as though the corrected resolution had applied from the start. Nothing on this page changes that process — see the Terms.

Independence and interests

This blog is published by the company that runs the marketplace it writes about, and that is a conflict worth naming rather than hiding. GADUIN charges no trading or settlement fee, and no post here is written to push you toward a particular side of a market. Posts are still marketing in the sense that they exist to bring people to the platform, and you should read them knowing that.

Reaching the desk

Corrections, source questions and requests for the underlying figures behind a post all go to [email protected]. Genuine enquiries get a human response within one business day.