Supply-chain disruption
The prediction market for supply-chain disruption
A supply-chain disruption prediction market is a venue where people and automated agents trade yes/no event contracts on real-world logistics outcomes — flight delays, train cancellations, ship arrivals, and throughput at maritime chokepoints. GADUIN is that market: every contract commits to a public data source when it opens and settles automatically after the event, with zero trading fees.
Disruption is one of the largest, least-priced risks in the economy. A grounded aircraft, a cancelled train, or a vessel stuck at a chokepoint ripples through freight schedules, budgets, and travel plans — yet there has been no direct, transparent way to price it. GADUIN turns those questions into tradable markets, so a live, crowd-sourced probability replaces guesswork and anyone exposed to disruption can price it, trade it, or hedge it.
A market, not a tracker or a forecast
GADUIN is a trading venue — not a flight tracker, a shipping dashboard, a forecasting service, or an insurer. Trackers tell you where something is right now; a prediction market tells you what the crowd thinks will happen next, and lets you take the other side. Because contracts pay out on published measurements, the price of a market reads as a continuously updated, money-backed probability of disruption.
What you can trade
Transport is the wedge into supply-chain risk. Each vertical is a live market on observable outcomes, settled from a named public data source.
Flight disruption markets
Trade whether a specific flight arrives on time, lands past a delay threshold, or is cancelled — settled from public ADS-B tracking data.
Explore flight markets →Rail disruption markets
Trade delay and cancellation contracts on Great Britain's National Rail network, settled from public running data.
Explore rail markets →Shipping & chokepoint markets
Trade arrival and throughput contracts on the world's busiest maritime chokepoints, settled from AIS and IMF PortWatch data.
Explore shipping markets →How the markets settle
Every market names its data source and resolution rule the moment it opens, and resolves automatically once the event has happened — no house, no adjuster, no discretion. Read how settlement works and the public data that settles our markets.
Who trades supply-chain disruption
Retail traders take a view on the events they follow; logistics and hedging counterparties offset genuine disruption exposure — see GADUIN for institutions. The same markets are open to software: agents and trading bots read and trade over REST and the Model Context Protocol.
A worked example
A container ship bound for Rotterdam via Suez opens with on-time arrival trading at 65%. Congestion builds at the canal and public AIS positions show the vessel anchored in the waiting queue, so the price slides. When it finally berths two days behind its locked estimate, the on-time contract settles at $0 and the delayed side is paid $1 — automatically, from the data source fixed when the market opened.
Learn the basics
New to event contracts? Start with Learn, understand what an event contract is, or browse the glossary.