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What is an event contract?
An event contract is a yes/no instrument on the outcome of a real-world event. It pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price between those two values — say $0.62 — reads directly as the market-implied probability of the event, in this case 62%.
Event contracts turn a question about the world into something you can trade. On GADUIN the question is always about supply-chain disruption: will this flight arrive on time, will this train be cancelled, will this vessel clear the chokepoint on schedule.
Price is probability
Because a contract is worth exactly $1 or $0 at the end, its price along the way is the crowd's live estimate of how likely the outcome is. A contract at 62% costs about $0.62; if you buy it and the event happens, you receive $1 — a 38-cent profit per contract — and if it does not, you receive nothing. As new information arrives, prices move, and the probability moves with them. You can buy the side you think is under-priced and sell any time before the market closes.
Two sides of every question
Every market has a YES and a NO side whose prices sum to about $1. Buying NO is simply taking the other side of the question — a position that pays if a delay does not happen, for example. Because you can trade either side and exit before settlement, an event contract behaves more like a position you manage than a ticket you buy and hold to the end.
A quick example
Suppose a market on a transatlantic flight is trading at 20% for delayed. A storm builds over the destination and traders push it to 60% before the plane has landed. If the flight arrives past its delay threshold, everyone holding the delayed side is paid $1 per contract; if it lands on time, that side pays $0 and the on-time holders are paid instead.
A trading venue, not a forecast or a policy
GADUIN is a marketplace where prices are set by what participants will pay — not a forecasting service that hands you a prediction, and not an insurer that underwrites a policy. Nobody quotes you fixed odds and takes the other side as the house; you trade against the pool, and every market settles from a public data source rather than a referee's call. That distinction is what makes the price meaningful and the settlement verifiable.
How they settle
Each contract commits to a named public data source when the market opens and resolves automatically once the event has happened — public ADS-B for flights, National Rail for trains, AIS and IMF PortWatch for ships. See how settlement works, or browse the glossary for the terms.