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TRAINS·1K86 LM
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Will 1K86 LM from Birmingham New Street to Crewe arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 16?

1K86 runs from Birmingham New Street to Crewe for LM.

The journey

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    51%

    chance of on time

  • Delayed
    47%
  • Cancelled
    2%
$1,154 vol

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time51%Delayed47%Cancelled2%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. Opens
    1:26 AM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the train arrives
  3. Settles
    Waiting on the result

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival record the destination station publishes, against the published timetable. A train that arrives late by the delay threshold or more settles "Delayed"; an official cancellation settles "Cancelled". The threshold and the timetabled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the train, not by anyone here.

This market's delay threshold is 5 minutes.

People are also trading

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
On time
51%