Will the 19:56 from London Marylebone to Aylesbury Vale Parkway arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Oct 2?
2V61 runs from London Marylebone to Aylesbury Vale Parkway for CH.
The journey
What the market thinks
Connecting- On time38%
- Delayed59%
chance of delayed
- Cancelled3%
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- Opens2:56 PM UTC
- ClosesWhen the train arrives
- SettlesWaiting on the result
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival record the destination station publishes, against the published timetable. A train that arrives late by the delay threshold or more settles "Delayed"; an official cancellation settles "Cancelled". The threshold and the timetabled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the train, not by anyone here.
A trade accepted after the train's arrival at the destination, or a cancellation that stands, was first published is voided and refunded in full, including any fee (a bonus trade to your bonus balance). Publication is dated by the source's own time on the report (a time given only to the second counts as the end of that second) or by when we received the report, whichever is earlier. For an arrival, if the recorded arrival time is earlier, it is the cutoff instead.
This market's delay threshold is 5 minutes.
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