Will 1M78 XC from Bournemouth to Birmingham New Street arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 15?
1M78 runs from Bournemouth to Birmingham New Street for XC.
The journey
LiveWhat the market thinks
Connecting- On time33%
- Delayed66%
chance of delayed
- Cancelled1%
$247 vol
That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Loading price historyOn time33%Delayed66%Cancelled1%
Loading price history
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- Opens1:24 AM UTC
- ClosesWhen the train arrives
- SettlesWaiting on the result
Recent trades
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How it settles
We read the arrival record the destination station publishes, against the published timetable. A train that arrives late by the delay threshold or more settles "Delayed"; an official cancellation settles "Cancelled". The threshold and the timetabled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the train, not by anyone here.
This market's delay threshold is 5 minutes.
People are also trading
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You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:
- You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
- You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
Delayed
66%