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TRAINS·1D38 GW
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Will 1D38 GW from London Paddington to Oxford arrive on time on Sep 14?

1D38 runs from London Paddington to Oxford for GW.

The journey

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    53%

    chance of on time

  • Delayed
    45%
  • Cancelled
    2%
$56 vol0 trades

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

No trades yetOn time53%Delayed45%Cancelled2%
No trades yet

Nothing has traded here yet, so the prices above are where this market opened. The line starts the moment someone takes a side.

Timeline

  1. Opens
    12:00 PM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the train arrives
  3. Settles
    Instant & automatic

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival record the destination station publishes, against the published timetable. A train that arrives late by the delay threshold or more settles "Delayed"; an official cancellation settles "Cancelled". The threshold and the timetabled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the train, not by anyone here.

People are also trading

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
On time
53%