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Trains2S54 SN
All SN services

Will the 19:06 from London Victoria to West Croydon arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 30?

2S54 runs from London Victoria to West Croydon for SN.

Closed

Trading closed — waiting on the result

Trading has closed, so no more trades can be placed. We keep checking the authoritative record and valid alternatives. Each contract on the outcome that happens pays $1.00 once a valid outcome is established and the market settles; a missing report does not itself establish an outcome or start an automatic refund deadline.

The journey

Southern2S54

Where it finished

  • On time
    96%

    chance of on time

  • Delayed
    1%
  • Cancelled
    3%
$416 vol

The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time96%Delayed1%Cancelled3%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. Opens
    1:39 AM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the train arrives
  3. Settles
    Waiting on the result

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival record the destination station publishes, against the published timetable. A train that arrives late by the delay threshold or more settles "Delayed"; an official cancellation settles "Cancelled". The threshold and the timetabled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the train, not by anyone here.

A trade accepted after the train's arrival at the destination, or a cancellation that stands, was first published is voided and refunded in full, including any fee (a bonus trade to your bonus balance). Publication is dated by the source's own time on the report (a time given only to the second counts as the end of that second) or by when we received the report, whichever is earlier. For an arrival, if the recorded arrival time is earlier, it is the cutoff instead.

This market's delay threshold is 5 minutes.

People are also trading

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
On time
96%
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