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TRAINS·4 AMTK
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Will 4 AMTK from Los Angeles to Chicago Union Station arrive on time on Sep 16?

4 runs from Los Angeles to Chicago Union Station for AMTK.

The journey

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    50%

    chance of on time

  • Delayed
    48%
  • Cancelled
    2%
$62 vol0 trades

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

No trades yetOn time50%Delayed48%Cancelled2%
No trades yet

Nothing has traded here yet, so the prices above are where this market opened. The line starts the moment someone takes a side.

Timeline

  1. Opens
    11:55 PM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the train arrives
  3. Settles
    Instant & automatic

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival record the destination station publishes, against the published timetable. A train that arrives late by the delay threshold or more settles "Delayed"; an official cancellation settles "Cancelled". The threshold and the timetabled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the train, not by anyone here.

People are also trading

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
On time
50%