Will 2M41 SW from London Waterloo to Chessington South arrive on time on Sep 13?
2M41 runs from London Waterloo to Chessington South for SW.
Trading closed — waiting on the result
No more trades can be placed. The event itself decides the outcome, and the market pays out $1.00 on every winning contract as soon as the result is reported.
The journey
Where it finished
- On time95%
chance of on time
- Delayed2%
- Cancelled2%
That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Nothing has traded here yet, so the prices above are where this market opened. The line starts the moment someone takes a side.
Timeline
- Opens1:34 AM UTC
- ClosesWhen the train arrives
- SettlesInstant & automatic
Recent trades
How it settles
The arrival is confirmed by two independent official sources, which must agree. A train arriving 5 or more minutes late at its destination settles "delayed"; an official planned cancellation settles "cancelled". The market's terms are fixed when it opens — so the outcome is decided by the train, not by anyone here.
People are also trading
Insider trading is prohibited
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.