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Will 7 AMTK from Chicago Union Station to Seattle arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 18?

7 runs from Chicago Union Station to Seattle for AMTK.

The journey

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    48%
  • Delayed
    50%

    chance of delayed

  • Cancelled
    2%
$136 vol

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time48%Delayed50%Cancelled2%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. Opens
    8:48 PM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the train arrives
  3. Settles
    Waiting on the result

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival record the destination station publishes, against the published timetable. A train that arrives late by the delay threshold or more settles "Delayed"; an official cancellation settles "Cancelled". The threshold and the timetabled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the train, not by anyone here.

This market's delay threshold is 5 minutes.

People are also trading

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You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
Delayed
50%