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TRAINS·1Y41 HX
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Will 1Y41 HX from Heathrow Terminal 5 to London Paddington arrive on time on Sep 13?

1Y41 runs from Heathrow Terminal 5 to London Paddington for HX.

The journey

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    1%
  • Delayed
    0%
  • Cancelled
    99%

    chance of cancelled

$681 vol0 trades

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

No trades yetOn time1%Delayed0%Cancelled99%
No trades yet

Nothing has traded here yet, so the prices above are where this market opened. The line starts the moment someone takes a side.

Timeline

  1. Opens
    12:21 AM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the train arrives
  3. Settles
    Instant & automatic

Recent trades

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How it settles

The arrival is confirmed by two independent official sources, which must agree. A train arriving 5 or more minutes late at its destination settles "delayed"; an official planned cancellation settles "cancelled". The market's terms are fixed when it opens — so the outcome is decided by the train, not by anyone here.

People are also trading

Insider trading is prohibited

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
Cancelled
99%