The 07:45 Eugene → Seattle arrived on time on Nov 11
504 runs from Eugene to Seattle for AMTK.
On time
97% chance at closeSettled on the destination station's published arrival record against the published timetable; delayed means 5 minutes or more late
- Scheduled
- Nov 11, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC
- Recorded
- Nov 11, 2026, 10:03 PM UTC
- Evidence received
- Nov 11, 2026, 10:05 PM UTC
The journey
Final chance
- On timeResult97%
chance of on time
- Delayed0%
- Cancelled3%
Chance comes from the market price, which can show before any trade happens. On settled markets it's the final price. It isn't our forecast or an official status.
Price history
Current prices are shown above.
Timeline and payout
- Market opens07:45 PST
- Market closes14:05 PST
- PayoutResult: On time · $1.00 per share on the outcome that happens
Recent trades
Rules
Settles "Delayed" if the train arrives at least the delay threshold late against the published timetable, and "Cancelled" if it is officially cancelled. We use the arrival record the destination station publishes. The threshold and timetabled arrival are fixed when the market opens.
Trades accepted after the train's arrival at the destination, or a final cancellation, is first published are voided and refunded in full, fees included. Bonus trades are refunded to your bonus balance. The publication time is the earlier of the time on the report and when we received it. A time given only to the second counts as the end of that second. For an arrival, if the recorded arrival time is earlier, that is the cutoff.
Delay threshold: 5 minutes.
People are also trading
Insider trading is prohibited
You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:
- You work for an organization whose data settles this market.
- You have material non-public information about what this market measures.