Will at least 663 ships pass through the Luzon Strait in the week of Oct 12 – Oct 18?
Waiting on the result
The result has not been reported or processed yet. We keep checking authoritative records and valid alternatives; no funds have moved. For a flight, the wait has a limit: if no arrival is recorded for it, every position is refunded in full automatically, normally a little over two days after its scheduled arrival, or, if the destination's arrivals record has gone dark, once it has stayed dark for two days.
Where it finished
- Yes49%
- No51%
chance of no
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
The journey
Timeline
- Opens12:00 AM UTC
- Closes11:59 PM UTC
- SettlesWaiting on the result
Recent trades
How it settles
Luzon Strait · ship transits · 2026-W42. Yes if the final count is ≥ 663; otherwise No.
The observation window is the ISO week, Monday 00:00 to the following Monday 00:00 UTC. Settlement waits for the source to publish a final weekly count. Missing or incomplete evidence is retried and may require review; it does not mean zero transits.
Settlement source: Published weekly transit count for this passage
People are also trading
Insider trading is prohibited
You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:
- You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
- You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.