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FLIGHTS·AAL 4029

Will AAL 4029 from Washington to Raleigh/Durham arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 15?

Over the last 30 days AAL4029 has arrived on time on 49% of its 39 tracked flights between Washington and Raleigh/Durham — 4 late and 16 cancelled.

The journey

Live
Venkat Mangudi · CC BY-SA 2.0

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    64%

    chance of on time

  • Delayed
    34%
  • Cancelled
    2%
$65 vol

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time64%Delayed34%Cancelled2%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. In the air
    Opens
    12:53 PM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the flight arrives
  3. Settles
    Waiting on the result
Recent performance
49%on time
4delayed16cancelled
Aug 17Sep 15

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.

This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
On time
64%