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FLIGHTS·AC 4305

AC 4305 from Tulsa to Chicago was delayed on Sep 19

Over the last 30 days AC4305 has arrived on time on 90% of its 21 tracked flights between Tulsa and Chicago — 2 late and 0 cancelled.

Settled · Result

Delayed

market said 85%

Settled on the destination airport operator's published arrival time against the schedule it published when the market opened; delayed means more than 15 minutes late

Scheduled
Sep 19, 2026, 2:03 PM UTC
Recorded
Sep 19, 2026, 6:01 PM UTC
Evidence received
Sep 19, 2026, 6:10 PM UTC

The journey

N509FZ · CC BY-SA 4.0

Where it finished

  • On time
    13%
  • DelayedResult
    85%

    chance of delayed

  • Cancelled
    1%
$196 vol

The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time13%Delayed85%Cancelled1%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. Opens
    5:03 AM UTC
  2. Closes
    6:13 PM UTC
  3. Settles
    Settled: Delayed · $1.00 if you called it right
Recent performance
90%on time
2delayed0cancelled
Aug 27Sep 25

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.

This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.