China Eastern Airlines MU 4180 from Tokyo to Shanghai arrived on time on Sep 30
Over the last 30 days MU4180 has arrived on time on 92% of its 25 tracked flights between Tokyo and Shanghai — 2 late and 0 cancelled.
On time
market said 95%Settled on the destination airport operator's published arrival time against the schedule it published when the market opened; delayed means more than 15 minutes late
- Scheduled
- Sep 30, 2026, 3:20 AM UTC
- Recorded
- Sep 30, 2026, 3:11 AM UTC
- Evidence received
- Sep 30, 2026, 3:26 AM UTC
The journey
Where it finished
- On timeResult95%
chance of on time
- Delayed5%
- Cancelled0%
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- Opens4:06 PM UTC
- Closes3:29 AM UTC
- SettlesSettled: On time · $1.00 if you called it right
Recent performance
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
A trade accepted after the flight's arrival was first published is voided and refunded in full, including any fee (a bonus trade to your bonus balance). Publication is dated by the flight-data message's own time, or by when an airport's board served the arrival to us; if the recorded arrival time is earlier, it is the cutoff instead.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
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