United Airlines UA 858 from Shanghai to San Francisco was delayed on Sep 28
Over the last 30 days UA858 has arrived on time on 86% of its 29 tracked flights between Shanghai and San Francisco — 4 late and 0 cancelled.
Delayed
market said 31%Settled on the destination airport operator's published arrival time against the schedule it published when the market opened; delayed means more than 15 minutes late
- Scheduled
- Sep 28, 2026, 3:35 PM UTC
- Recorded
- Sep 28, 2026, 3:56 PM UTC
- Evidence received
- Sep 28, 2026, 4:28 PM UTC
The journey
Where it finished
- On time67%
- DelayedResult31%
chance of delayed
- Cancelled2%
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- Opens3:47 AM UTC
- Closes3:59 PM UTC
- SettlesSettled: Delayed · $1.00 if you called it right
Recent performance
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
People are also trading
Insider trading is prohibited
You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:
- You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
- You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.