Will Shanghai Airlines FM 811 from Shanghai to Hong Kong arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Oct 1?
Over the last 30 days FM811 has arrived on time on 91% of its 22 tracked flights between Shanghai and Hong Kong — 1 late and 1 cancelled.
Waiting on the result
The result has not been reported or processed yet. We keep checking authoritative records and valid alternatives; no funds have moved. There is no automatic refund deadline while evidence is missing, and settlement waits until a valid outcome is established under this market's terms.
The journey
Where it finished
- On time86%
chance of on time
- Delayed12%
- Cancelled2%
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- Opens3:54 AM UTC
- Closes4:55 AM UTC
- SettlesWaiting on the result
Recent performance
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
A trade accepted after the flight's arrival was first published is voided and refunded in full, including any fee (a bonus trade to your bonus balance). Publication is dated by the flight-data message's own time, or by when an airport's board served the arrival to us; if the recorded arrival time is earlier, it is the cutoff instead.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
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Insider trading is prohibited
You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:
- You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
- You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.