United Airlines UAL 2866 from San Francisco to Santa Barbara arrived on time on Sep 23
Over the last 30 days UAL2866 has arrived on time on 75% of its 40 tracked flights between San Francisco and Santa Barbara — 10 late and 0 cancelled.
On time
market said 64%Settled on the destination airport operator's published arrival time against its published schedule; delayed means more than 15 minutes late
- Scheduled
- Sep 24, 2026, 5:45 AM UTC
- Recorded
- Sep 24, 2026, 5:57 AM UTC
- Evidence received
- Sep 24, 2026, 5:57 AM UTC
The journey
Where it finished
- On timeResult64%
chance of on time
- Delayed36%
- Cancelled1%
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- Opens5:25 AM UTC
- Closes6:00 AM UTC
- SettlesSettled: On time · $1.00 if you called it right
Recent performance
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
A trade accepted after the flight's arrival was first published is voided and refunded in full, including any fee (a bonus trade to your bonus balance). Publication is dated by the flight-data message's own time, or by when an airport's board served the arrival to us; if the recorded arrival time is earlier, it is the cutoff instead.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
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