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FLIGHTS·AA 4165
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Will AA 4165 from Reno to Phoenix arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 16?

Over the last 30 days AA4165 has arrived on time on 41% of its 22 tracked flights between Reno and Phoenix — 3 late and 10 cancelled.

The journey

Venkat Mangudi · CC BY-SA 2.0

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    65%

    chance of on time

  • Delayed
    33%
  • Cancelled
    2%
$0 vol

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time65%Delayed33%Cancelled2%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. Scheduled to arrive
    Opens
    5:18 AM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the flight arrives
  3. Settles
    Waiting on the result
Recent performance
43%on time
3delayed9cancelled
Aug 17Sep 15

Recent trades

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How it settles

We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.

This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.

People are also trading

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
On time
65%