Skip to content
FLIGHTS·AAL 404

Will AAL 404 from Phoenix to Miami arrive on time, be delayed, or be cancelled on Sep 15?

Over the last 30 days AAL404 has arrived on time on 50% of its 24 tracked flights between Phoenix and Miami — 12 late and 0 cancelled.

The journey

Venkat Mangudi · CC BY-SA 2.0

What the market thinks

Connecting
  • On time
    49%

    chance of on time

  • Delayed
    49%
  • Cancelled
    2%
$93 vol

That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.

How the chance has moved

Loading price historyOn time49%Delayed49%Cancelled2%
Loading price history

Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.

Timeline

  1. Scheduled to arrive
    Opens
    1:14 AM UTC
  2. Closes
    When the flight arrives
  3. Settles
    Waiting on the result
Recent performance
50%on time
12delayed0cancelled
Aug 17Sep 15

Recent trades

Loading…

How it settles

We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.

This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.

People are also trading

Insider trading is prohibited

You can't trade this market if any of these applies to you:

  • You are employed by any of the Source Agencies.
  • You hold material, non-public information about whatever this market measures.
On time
49%