Will AAL 4404 from New York to Wilmington arrive on time on Sep 13?
Over the last 30 days AAL4404 has arrived on time on 32% of its 28 tracked flights between New York and Wilmington — 16 late and 3 cancelled.
The journey
What the market thinks
Connecting- On time43%
- Delayed55%
chance of delayed
- Cancelled2%
That's what people here are paying right now — not a forecast from us, and not an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Nothing has traded here yet, so the prices above are where this market opened. The line starts the moment someone takes a side.
Timeline
- Opens1:39 AM UTC
- ClosesWhen the flight arrives
- SettlesInstant & automatic
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
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