AAL 4974 from Monterey to Phoenix was delayed on Sep 16
Over the last 30 days AAL4974 has arrived on time on 79% of its 52 tracked flights between Monterey and Phoenix — 11 late and 0 cancelled.
Delayed
market said 61%Settled on the destination airport operator's published arrival time against its published schedule; delayed means more than 15 minutes late
- Scheduled
- Sep 17, 2026, 1:14 AM UTC
- Recorded
- Sep 17, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC
- Evidence received
- Sep 17, 2026, 1:43 AM UTC
The journey
Where it finished
- On time38%
- DelayedResult61%
chance of delayed
- Cancelled1%
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- Opens5:19 AM UTC
- Closes1:42 AM UTC
- SettlesSettled: Delayed · $1.00 if you called it right
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
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