How will United Airlines 4630 Minot → Denver arrive on Nov 15?
UAL4630 flies from Minot to Denver. 67% on time over the last 30 days (24 tracked flights).
Waiting for the result
Each share on the outcome that happens pays $1.00 when the market settles. A missing report doesn't count as a result. If a flight's arrival is never recorded, all positions are refunded in full automatically.
The journey
Chance at close
- On time65%
chance of on time
- Delayed33%
- Cancelled2%
Chance comes from the market price, which can show before any trade happens. On settled markets it's the final price. It isn't our forecast or an official status.
Price history
Current prices are shown above.
Timeline and payout
- Market opens8:55 AM UTC
- Market closes12:11 PM UTC
- PayoutWaiting on the result
Recent performance
Recent trades
Rules
Settles "Delayed" if the flight arrives more than the delay threshold after its scheduled arrival, and "On time" if it arrives within the threshold, including exactly at it. We use FAA records for US airports, and the destination airport's own published arrival time and schedule elsewhere. The threshold and scheduled arrival are fixed when the market opens.
Trades accepted after the flight's arrival is first published are voided and refunded in full, fees included. Bonus trades are refunded to your bonus balance. The publication time is the time on the flight-data message, or when an airport's board showed us the arrival. If the recorded arrival time is earlier, that is the cutoff.
Delay threshold: 15 minutes.
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- You work for an organization whose data settles this market.
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