AAL 491 from Miami to Washington arrived on time on Sep 20
Over the last 30 days AAL491 has arrived on time on 83% of its 30 tracked flights between Miami and Washington — 3 late and 2 cancelled.
On time
market said 88%Settled on the recorded arrival time against the scheduled arrival fixed when the market opened; delayed means more than 15 minutes late
- Scheduled
- Sep 20, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC
- Recorded
- Sep 20, 2026, 1:05 PM UTC
- Evidence received
- Sep 20, 2026, 1:05 PM UTC
The journey
Where it finished
- On timeResult88%
chance of on time
- Delayed11%
- Cancelled1%
The displayed market price implies a probability, but does not show that a trade took place. On settled markets, it is the final market price. It is neither our forecast nor an official status from the operator.
How the chance has moved
Historical prices are being retrieved. Current market prices appear above.
Timeline
- Opens4:34 PM UTC
- Closes1:06 PM UTC
- SettlesSettled: On time · $1.00 if you called it right
Recent trades
How it settles
We read the arrival time the destination airport publishes, against its published schedule. A flight that arrives more than the delay threshold late settles "Delayed"; one that arrives exactly on the threshold settles "On time". The threshold and the scheduled arrival it is measured against are fixed when the market opens — so the outcome is decided by the flight, not by anyone here.
This market's delay threshold is 15 minutes.
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